Since 1 January under the ban for import to Russia included 17 categories of Turkish products. In six of these, Turkey was the largest importer to Russia: tomatoes, mandarins, grapes, apricots, strawberries, peaches and nectarines. For the supply of cucumbers the Turks placed second, orange is third. Overall in those 17 categories on Turkey in January—February 2015 had 26% imports: $138 million of the $530 million, according to the calculations of the international trade Centre of Moscow, based on data of the Federal customs service. With its 26% Turkey ranked first. In January—February of this year, shipments fell by 19.5%, to $426,5 million, and Turkey’s share amounted to 0%.
In January—February 2016 aggregate 17 in the sanctions category first place went to Morocco (before he had second): this country had 24% of deliveries in money terms — $103,7 million Second place China (13.7 percent), third in Pakistan (11.4 per cent).
The most critical for Russia will be a waiver of Turkish tomatoes since about 70% of tomatoes in the Russian market import, warned at the beginning of the year Director General of FruitNews Irina Goat. The tomatoes took Morocco in January—February the first place. Deliveries increased by almost 2.5 times, to $51.7 million (see figure). This is slightly less than brought Turkey in January—February 2015 — $58.2 million In relative terms has greatly increased its sales to CIS countries — Azerbaijan (an increase of almost four times and getting into the top-3 suppliers), Armenia (height 240 times and fifth place), Uzbekistan (growth by 11 times). The growth of imports from CIS countries stems from the fact that even before the imposition of sanctions, these countries have developed the program of development of vegetable production in open and protected ground, which were focused on Russia, explains the General Director of Institute of agrarian marketing Elena Tyurina.
Morocco became a leader in the supply of mandarins — $51 million, growth of 1.34 times. More than three-fold increase in supplies from Egypt. In relative terms, the greatest increase being in the shipments of oranges from Georgia (but the absolute value of the modest increase was $81 thousand and $735 thousand).
Beyond the numbers statistics worth increased cooperation with Morocco, a major Russian retailers. The group of companies “Dixie” began to work more actively with suppliers in Morocco and has signed several new contracts with the Moroccan vendors, said the Director for external relations in Dixy Catherine Kamanina. As a result, in the spring months Morocco provides about half the required volume of tomatoes and about one tenth of mandarins. Also “Dixie” has expanded its cooperation with suppliers from Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, South Africa and Argentina. In addition, the company is negotiating with suppliers from Iran in the near future, in addition to cucumbers and kiwi fruit on the shelves “Dixie” appears Iranian tomatoes, zucchini, apricots, peaches, plums and grapes. In the network “Lenta” Turkish oranges and tangerines replaced by supplies from Morocco and Egypt, said the representative of the retailer. Now the network is negotiating for “prohibited categories” with suppliers from Israel, Serbia and other CIS countries, in particular from Uzbekistan.
But in such large categories of imports, like oranges and cucumbers, Turkey replaced not none: import just dropped. In monetary terms the supply of oranges has decreased by more than a third, in real — by 12.5%; the leader remained Egypt with $46 million Shipments of cucumbers fell by 38.1% in cash and 33% in real terms; leading supplier left Iran, but he now had three-quarters of supply. For grapes, where once almost half of deliveries were in Turkey, leaders were Peru, South Africa and India.
Since April 25, the Rosselkhoznadzor imposes temporary restrictions on import of Turkish eggplants. The reason, noted in a press-service, was “the continuing flow from Turkey consignments of eggplant infected with quarantine organisms”.
At the beginning of this week, the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert made a ban on the import of Turkish eggplants. Answering a question of journalists, decided whether the President to expand the list of prohibited for phytosanitary reasons, products from Turkey, he said that his Ministry had such grounds.
In mid-March, the Rosselkhoznadzor on phytosanitary considerations, banned the import to Russia of Turkish peppers and pomegranates.
Interestingly, the prices of all these twists and turns so far has not affected much. For example, the price increase for tomatoes during the year (March 2016 to March 2015) was 5.5%, on oranges — 9,5%, on cucumbers the price actually fell by 3.7% (tangerines Rosstat figures). A slight increase in the prices of tomatoes and reduce the price of cucumbers due to the fact that increased sales volume of the Russian production because of the rapid growth of vegetable production in greenhouses, says Goat of FruitNews. In addition, it has been influenced by the high base effect of the sharp devaluation of the ruble noticeable increase in food prices occurred in the first half of 2015.
Lemons are not red
For the first two months of 2016 the supply of products from Turkey fell compared with the same period of 2015, on 63%, to $86.9 million Turkish Main food category were the lemons, which do not fall under the ban: accounting for a quarter of Turkish supplies. This prosperous lemons, according to Rosstat, rose by 49.7% (March 2016 to March 2015).