Sustainable conditions for high oil prices in terms of balance of supply and demand will not develop until at least the third quarter of 2016, Goldman Sachs analysts say in their published in the Friday note. On this basis in the short term, oil prices may fall, because the current reduction in oil production in the U.S. may not compensate for the increase in the supply of cheap oil from Iran, Reuters quoted the document.
Not secured by fundamental factors and the recent increase in metal prices: copper, iron ore, silver and gold. “Despite the fact that the prices of raw materials have the potential to climb even higher, we believe that the price rally is not supported by changes in fundamental factors”, — said in a research note by Goldman Sachs.
Analysts believe that the current rebalancing of supply and demand is short-lived. Sustainable deficit in commodity markets is still not observed.
According to forecasts by Goldman Sachs, the price of iron ore by the end of 2016 to fall to $35 per ton. Now the price of iron ore is $68,7 per ton, last month it increased by 30%. “Current growth is not sustainable because we do not observe growth of demand for steel in China, which could counterbalance the growth of ore extraction in Brazil, Australia and other regions”, — explained in Goldman Sachs.
In April, the index Thomson Reuters/Core commodity CRB Index (which includes 19 major raw materials) reached the highest level since December 2015. The price of gold in 2016 increased by 17% and copper prices by 16.5%.