In their forecasts, the analyst refers to technical data analysis, according to which a reversal of the pair dollar/ruble may start after reaching a rate of 63 roubles per dollar. “April 19 is the minimum price at the opening in the pair dollar/ruble reached RUB 62,68,” he says in his review. It turns out that the pair has reached a pivot point and now expect a stronger dollar to 80 rubles, because the market is “bullish” trend,” predicts Alan Kaziev.
The analyst does not name a period when the American currency can reach the level of 80 rubles, however in any case advised to open long positions on the dollar. “The dollar strengthening may be associated with different events — from regulatory to price movements on the oil market. The latter is more obvious, because the ruble is most sensitive to fluctuations in the cost of a barrel,” he says. Gaziyev noted that due to the decline in oil prices investors can again be displaced in favor of buying U.S. Treasury securities, leading to sales of risky assets.
He conceded that if oil prices remain at $44-45 per barrel, the ruble may occasionally and briefly strengthened. “Perhaps the players will get the chance to buy the dollar at 63-65 rubles. But if oil prices will go down dramatically, the ruble will plummet,” says Alan Kaziev.
In March, Alfa-Bank also predicted a strengthening of the dollar to 80 rubles and offered investors earn on foreign exchange rates. “Calculations made on the basis of technical analysis, it is said that in March the dollar will cost 80 rubles, with the price of oil is $36-35 per barrel”, — was stated in the review released then. However, this has not happened: in March—April, the ruble was strengthened: the value of the dollar has decreased approximately on 7,5 roubles (from 73.4 to 66 rubles). “We assumed that oil prices in March has already increased significantly and investors may get out of speculative assets. But the correction in the oil market has not occurred: first, oil fell slightly, and then began to rise to new highs. On this wave the ruble continued to strengthen gradually,” commented Alan Kaziev.
By the summer of 2016, the analyst predicted a new strengthening of the ruble: according to the baseline forecast, the dollar may cost 64-65 RUB.
“We do not exclude that oil could fall to test the January lows. Likely this is because the number of experts expect the start of phase correction in the oil market”, — says the head of the dealing center of Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk. However, according to him, given the current balance between supply and demand on the market, then most likely the barrel in the medium term will cost $40-50. “Taking into account such fluctuations of the dollar can appreciate, and to go into new lows, up to 62-63 rubles”, — said the expert.
Monday, 25 April, the dollar traded on the Moscow exchange at RUB 66.1 per cent, since the start of trading the U.S. currency climbed from 66.4 to 66.8 rubles. the Ruble strengthened, despite declining oil prices: at the beginning of day barrel Brent has fallen in price on 0,64%, to $44,87. Support the Russian currency has ongoing tax period: according to Sberbank CIB analyst Alexander Golynskaya, on Monday, the exporters have to pay the mineral extraction tax in the amount of 231 billion roubles. “Probably, in the morning support the ruble had sales of foreign currency by exporters. Any sale could affect the rate as momentum in the market today,” says the trader “Renaissance Capital” Levon Atanasyan. According to him, in the afternoon, oil prices again began to rise, the price of a barrel of Brent was over $45, and supported the ruble.