The way for the nomination of businessman Donald trump for U.S. President from the Republican party opened. After his victory in the primaries in Indiana from the race came past a strong opponent, Senator from Texas Ted Cruz. After that, the only one, along with trump’s continued participation in the primaries was the Governor of Ohio John Kasich. His score was a victory in just one state. But he seems to be out of this race – this is with reference to its sources reported on Wednesday NBC TV, and CNN.
“If you’d told me a year ago that trump will be a candidate, I would think you were crazy,” admits Nate silver, the head of the portal fivethirtyeight.com and one of the most respected in the United States electoral forecasters. Throughout 2015 and even in January of this year he denied the probability of success of trump. But in the end the Republican party are unable to offer their voters a worthy competitor to the billionaire: first, the party establishment has failed to cut off the race with a dozen players, which eroded the centrist electorate, and then to develop a common strategy to promote a moderate candidate.
Loss of control
The first reason for the success of trump is that the Republican party leadership has failed to recognize the serious drift of the voter and the party establishment in the direction of right-wing populism.
The first symptom was the formation of the Republican party inside new trend inside of the conservatives, the so-called tea party Movement or the Tea party. The name was taken in honor of the “Boston tea party” of 1773, when American colonists revolted in protest against the British tax on tea. New platform has brought together all groups, from libertarians to the extreme right, which demanded the reduction of state intervention in the economy, lower taxes, and the revision of the Federal budget. Later they were joined by fighters against illegal immigration, supporters of the prohibition of abortion and restrictions on the rights of the LGBT community.
“Two decades ago, the party was considered a centrist-right, and the “new right” – something out of the ordinary, — talked last year about the balance of power within Republican Norms, Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute. — But I saw the establishment of the Republican party in Congress, very conservative, first, lost to the radicals of the tea party Movement, which wanted to absorb, and then was himself largely absorbed or terrified by them”. Candidates of the tea party Movement became direct participants in the Republican race in 2016 Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. An important role in the design of the movement played in his time, and Donald trump — he was one of the leaders of becherov” (birthers, the word birth — birth), who denied the fact of Obama’s birth on US soil. In the American media described the theory that his reaction to this story, the President provoked the businessman to participate in the battle for the White house in 2011 at one of the receptions Obama in the eye made fun of trump.
By the time the populist-minded ultra-conservatives already took control of Congress — then they nearly brought the country to a paralysis of the administration refusing to raise the debt ceiling, which could have suspension of all budget payments. In the end, “terrorists”, as they were called by Vice President Joseph Biden (for which he later was forced to justify himself), managed to knock out Obama the deal — raising the debt ceiling in exchange for saving received under George Bush tax breaks. In the future, the Congress does not hesitate began to apply a policy of obstruction (in 2013, thanks to her government work was suspended for two weeks).
After the Republicans in Congress on a national scale became radicalized and the party activist base. “In state legislatures, party structures at the state level and in local policy documents regularly make such statements that even the most extremist lawmakers in Washington look at the background of moderate, reasoned, Ornstein.
“The Republican party itself has created trump is something like Frankenstein’s monster, which came to light thanks to the party, it was now nourished and strong enough to destroy his Creator,” announced in March, in a column for The Washington Post, researcher at the Brookings institution, Robert Kagan.
Against the norms and practices
In theory on the site of the trump could be any other anti-system candidate: the same cruise unsuccessfully claimed the role of the fighter against the party establishment. But Trump was assisted by his bright charisma of a businessman.
The American voter is psychologically prefer to choose to replace the outgoing President who on a personal level is a complete contrast to it, says David, Axelrod, the former chief strategist of the Obama campaign in 2008. The cautious former CIA Director George Bush the elder in 1992, he came close to the people charismatic bill Clinton, and then “cowboy” George Bush, the White house took Obama, about whom former Secretary of defense Robert gates said that he always considers himself “the smartest person in the room.”
Trump is the complete opposite of Obama. Tycoon, wealthy in real estate, over the past three decades was the star of tabloids and reality shows. He broke into big-time politics, having nothing of the mandatory set of modern American politics. “It doesn’t matter whether you pray to a trump or despise him, this man has no strings that would be pulled. No one controls trump, neither the Republican party nor the media nor the other candidates, neither the donors nor public morals, nor a capital policy of truth, nor pressure groups, nor even the voters,” talked about him Professor of the Military College of Georgia Eddie Zipperer.
Conservative American voter is prepared by the Republican party to a permanent search for enemies, as though they were waiting until one of the candidates will work in the US all Muslims, declare Mexican migrant workers “rapists” and promise to make Mexico pay for the construction of the wall on the us-Mexican border. Such disregard for political correctness in all its manifestations turned out to be more attractive to the voter than the traditional since the days of Ronald Reagan’s “three pillars” of the Republican party — low taxes, social conservatism and tough foreign policy. In his campaign, trump had violated an unspoken taboo to review them all.
Lovers of the media
Brand trump’s rudeness made him the star of this political season, any of his insults and attacks against opponents, any shocking statement received the most extensive coverage in the media.
Analysts started talking about “symbiosis” between the media and promoted, and the head of CBS Leslie Moonves at a conference for investors, admitted: “Maybe it [the statements of trump’s] not good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS. Money continues to flow”.
According to the March estimates by The New York Times, if the businessman paid all the airtime given to it by the major TV channels, he would have to pay more than $1.9 billion In fact, to campaign on TV trump has spent a total of $10 million – eight times less than the establishment’s candidate, Jeb Bush, or five times less than the last hope of the party leadership in this race, Marco Rubio. On trump’s accounted for 62% of all airtime and 54% of all newspaper articles on the race among Republicans.
A week ago Politico ran the headline “What have we done?” In the article, 94% of respondents political observers agreed that trump “successfully manipulating media to their advantage”.
Without tactics and strategies
After failing to harness the energy of right-wing populism in the early stages, the Republican leadership could not use against trump and available resources.
The trump phenomenon is not new — the American voters love unconventional candidates. For dissidents from politics even used a special term, maverick, which can be translated as an individualist, and as a dark horse. In 1992, billionaire conservative ROS Perot, nominated as a third candidate, confused cards marching to the re-election of Bush the elder, and during the race of 2012, analysts had estimated the chances of the nomination of Republican former Manager of Burger King and Godfather’s Pizza Herman Cain. But traditionally in the primaries, the Republican party selected a candidate who, on the one hand, was the most through, and on the other — strictly stuck to the traditional party ideology, says silver.
This time everything turned out differently — trump were not the highest chances of winning over both potential democratic nominees (on the contrary, it is almost guaranteed to lose them), but politically his positions were very far from those held in the “Grand old party” (the official name of Republicans).
The Republican establishment, applying the previous strategy, was immediately cut off such a candidate. But the party failed to develop an effective strategy that would allow it to do. In the primaries of 2016 was attended by 17 people (including three senators, and two acting governors), is the record since 1972, when there were set the modern standards of early voting. At least seven of the candidates were considered acceptable to the party leadership, the leading of them was Jeb Bush.
Strategy for trump looked as if the party waited, while he himself will sink. But the billionaire won victory after victory, because “no serious Republican coalition didn’t try to confront it when it still had time”, explained in February a Professor at tufts University’s Daniel W. Drezner. According to experts, this happened because “the party believed all those analysts who claimed that trump has no chance”.
In the end, all the moderate candidates have sunk each other, leaving on the stage of the trump and almost as unpleasant for the establishment of the cruise, and who had no Sanov on the nomination of Kasika.
Only by March, the Republican leadership was able to determine the objective of the “Treaty of the Congress” in July in Cleveland. But for this it was necessary that none of the nominees received the required victory 1237 votes of delegates. After the first round of voting, which was not revealed to the winner, the delegates would be released from the obligations to “their” candidates. This would allow the party leadership to offer to vote for the candidate-the outsider or even for a third-party person. But to implement this strategy it was too late — from the scene came the heavyweight Jeb Bush, even before the race brought together in their funds enormous amounts. It was followed by the latest favorite of the Republican leadership – candidate Rubio, and a dozen contenders.