Russia will not be able to overcome the budget deficit by 2020. This opinion was expressed by the participants in the Bloomberg survey-based forecast of the Russian Ministry of economic development, which refers to the average price of oil at $40 a barrel before the end of 2019.
Thus, 23 of the 28 analysts polled suggested that the budget will not be balanced until 2020 or even longer. Four experts expressed the view that the expenses of the Russian budget will be able to match the revenues only after 2025.
According to Bloomberg, the Russian authorities hope to achieve balancing by 2019 through savings in the amount of 1 p. p. of GDP due to fiscal measures. According to economists, the Russian authorities link the main hope for acceleration of economic growth.
In first place for efficiency to promote growth survey respondents put economic reforms. Other factors that could positively affect the situation, analysts have described the mitigation of anti-Russian sanctions and improving relations with the West.
Analyst PSB Sergey Narkevich in conversation with the Agency noted that usually a large-scale fiscal stimulus is effective for short term acceleration. However, he expressed the view that the long-term prospects of the Russian economy it will not improve. According to him, such measures, conversely, can lead to destabilization of the budget and financial system.