Three to six plants existing in Russia, two dozen may be closed due to low demand for the car. These findings are contained in the report of the consulting company BCG, which read “Vedomosti”.
The company said that at risk are the “producers that do not have strategic interests in Russia, with a focus on business development in other BRIC countries”. With this kind of threat might also be market participants, which started its production comparatively recently.
Last year from Russia left the U.S. to General Motors. In addition, in the far East have suspended the Assembly SsangYong and shut down the production of Toyota Land Cruiser Prado.
In “VTB the Capital” made the probability of preservation of the whole enterprises in Russia, however, have suggested that this is unlikely to happen in the next year or two. In turn, the chief editor of “Autobusinessreview” Sergey Baranov does not exclude that some production may be curtailed in 2016, both in passenger and in the cargo segment.
BCG urged not to wait for the growth in demand for cars. A few years ago, it was expected that by 2020, Russia will sell 3.5–4 million cars a year, but now the base scenario assumes only the sale of 1.9 million, the Main influencing this situation the factors are called negative forecasts on oil prices and the weakening of the ruble.
“The best strategy in the new conditions <…> does not wait for market growth, and to realize that there is considerable excess capacity, and to take drastic measures to download them either to convert,” said BCG senior partner Vladislav Boutenko.
Similar forecasts are provided by other experts. In PwC believe that in 2020 in Russia will be sold for 2.2 million cars. According to the forecast of “Sollers”, the market by that time will not exceed 2 million cars.
The decline in sales of cars leads to serious losses of producers. AvtoVAZ in the first quarter reported a net loss of 9 billion rubles in January—March the implementation of Lada cars decreased by 17%, to 56.8 thousand cars, compared to the first quarter of 2015. The whole market over the same period, lost about the same.
In early may, the Minister of industry and trade Denis Manturov said that the Russian car market could start to recover gradually from 2017. The Minister expressed the view that the current year will be “crucial to subsequent growth.”
Earlier, the Agency predicted that vehicle production in Russia in 2016 could fall in the range of 5-7%. In turn, the Association of European businesses (AEB) said that by the end of the year the drop in sales could be around 4% 35,7% in 2015.