Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov commented on the proposal of the Ministry of economic development to limit the growth of wages in the economy until 2019 with the aim to achieve GDP growth of 4.5% by that date. According to him, this is only one proposal, which is discussed by the authorities, and it is impossible to speak of a “clearly expressed position”. About this Peskov said, answering a question of journalists, the correspondent .
“This is one of the proposals continue the search for points of growth of the Russian economy. The topic say there is optimization of budget expenditures is constantly on the agenda, is constantly discussed, and the topic of, say, cost optimization of the state apparatus. These searches are conducted, while talking about the clear position of, probably, is not necessary”, — said the press Secretary of the President.
On Friday, may 6, the Ministry of economic development announced the revised draft of the macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2019. On Monday, the newspaper Kommersant drew attention to the target variant of the forecast, according to which to output on GDP growth 4.5% in 2019 the need to limit wage growth in the economy in 2016-2017, followed by compensation in 2018-2019, the reduction in real pensions by 4.8% in 2016 and 2% in 2017, with a further indexing only to inflation until 2019.
These measures, according to the Ministry, “will increase the number of poor from 13.1% in 2015 to 13.7% at the end of 2017, with a peak in 2018 at the level of 13.9% and a real return of income and the number of poor by the year 2015 to 2019”.
In this scenario, the reduction in income will be accompanied by accelerating investment growth from 3.8% in 2017 to 7.1% in 2019 — by which time they expected to reach 24.1% of GDP. The main source of investment are not household savings and corporate profits, which in 2018 is expected to grow by 12%, and in 2019 — by 10.8%, the newspaper notes. According to “Kommersant”, the draft economic development looks like an alternative to the proposals of the social block of the government, which considers it necessary to restart the model of growth based on the support of domestic demand, income growth in the public sector”.
The project macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry for 2016-2019, contains, based on the proposals of the Ministry target the scenario in which real disposable income is expected to contract 2.8% in 2016 and 0.3% in 2017, was published on the website of the MAYOR.
The sources provide an average annual growth rate of 4% of GDP in the medium term will be discussed at the meeting of the Presidium of the economic Council under the President of Russia which will take place, how to write “Vedomosti”, 25 may. It will make the head of the MAYOR Alexei Ulyukayev. In addition to speeches by the MAYOR are expected reports of the Stolypin club, and the Center for strategic research, which is chaired by Alexey Kudrin.