In 2015 in Russia for the first time in 15 years, decreased consumption of gasoline, the study said Vygon Consulting. The reduction was by 1.3% to 35.4 million tonnes In 2016-2017, the reduction will be even stronger due to the lack of “optimistic economic expectations and the fall in car sales, the report said. Experts predict a fall of 3.9%. Thus, in 2016, the demand for gasoline could fall to 34 million tons, and in 2017 — to 32.7 million tonnes.
The energy Ministry in October of 2015, gave a more optimistic forecast for 2016. “In 2015, we expect gasoline consumption in Russia in the amount of 35.4 million tonnes Forecast for next year, the consensus rating, including companies, ranging from 34.4 million tons to 36.4 million tons on average 35.5 million tons, slightly higher than this year”, — said energy Minister Alexander Novak at a meeting on oil refining, which Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev held in the Nizhny Novgorod region. According to the energy Ministry, in the first quarter of 2016, the consumption of gasoline has decreased by almost 2%.
But car sales continue to fall. According to PwC, in 2015 in Russia it has sold 1.3 million new passenger cars by 45% lower than a year earlier. PwC experts predict that in 2016 sales will fall another 15% to 1.1 million vehicles (baseline scenario) or, at least, by 7.7% to 1.2 million units (an optimistic scenario). However, in 2017 they expect growth to 1.4 million and 1.5 million new cars respectively.
Because of lower oil prices on world markets Russian consumers in 2015 could pay for 1 liter of gasoline of 9.9 RUB less, experts say Vygon Consulting. However, due to the reduction of export duties and the devaluation of the ruble prices for the gas stations continued to grow despite weak domestic demand, they said. In 2016-2017 it is expected commissioning of new facilities at the refinery, but additional fuel will nevostrebovannost in the domestic market and the export of petrol will increase to 9.1 million tonnes.
Despite the decline in demand for gasoline, the energy Ministry recommended that the oil companies create a reserve of 2.1 million tonnes of fuel. This recommendation was implemented by April 1, with Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, Tatneft and Independent oil companies. According to the Ministry of energy and reserves will fully cover the demand for fuel, and will allow overcoming the ban from 1 July 2016 on the appeal of the gasoline below the 5th grade .
From 1 April in Russia for the second time this year have been increased the excise tax on gasoline (2 RUB. for 1 liter), but so far this has not led to a noticeable increase in prices.