According to Goldman Sachs, the dollar strengthened by 15% in the next two years on the background of normalization of US monetary policy, reports Bloomberg referring to the report of the Bank senior currency analyst Robin Brooks.
Traders do not believe that the fed will change the rate before the fall, and expect the growth rate to 6% in June, the Agency said. This, according to Brooks, says that the markets began to pay less attention to the fed when determining the exchange rate.
Bloomberg recalls that in recent months, Goldman Sachs several times relied on the increase of the dollar, which is not always justified. In particular, in February the Bank closed dollar position of equilibrium to the basket against the yen and Euro with a potential loss of about 5%, said the Agency.
The U.S. currency rose nearly 3% from a year low hit last week, despite statistics that showed minimal employment growth in the United States for seven months. Goldman Sachs argues that the initial rally shows that the currency has the potential to rebound, as the market too abruptly abandoned hopes for economic growth and the fed rate hike.
Analysts at banks Societe Generale, and Brown Brothers Harriman & Co to a lesser extent believe in the strengthening of the dollar, indicating that its large scale recovery will depend on further data on the economy, emphasizes Bloomberg.
According to the respondents, the median rating Agency analysts, by the end of the year set rate $1,11/€1 and ¥115/$1. Bloomberg, citing data from the U.S. Commission on commodity futures trading, reports that in the week ended may 3, hedge funds and speculative investors increased net short positions on the dollar against eight major currencies to its highest level since April 2014.
In early may, The Wall Street Journal wrote that the currency analysts, whose opinion has reviewed the publication, consider the growth potential of the Euro exhausted and I believe that next year the European currency reaches parity with the dollar.