US Department of energy has published an updated forecast on energy markets until 2040. According to the forecast of the Ministry, the world price of oil, which fell from a high of around $115 per barrel in 2011 to $50 in 2015, during the reporting period will be restored. Expected in 2040 the price of oil will reach $141 per barrel, indicated in the document.
Increase daily consumption of oil will amount to 31 million barrels compared to 2012, which the U.S. energy counts in the forecast. This is roughly equal to the current demand in the United States and China, says Bloomberg columnist Liam Denning.
Minimal increase in demand the US Department of energy expects in Europe and Eurasia, non-OECD countries, including in Russia. It will be by 2040, 14% indicated in the forecast. The cause of the weak growth in the forecast is the decline in the population of the region and a significant increase in energy efficiency which will be achieved through the replacement of old equipment from the Soviet times.
According to Denning, to judge the correctness of the prediction of the demand is difficult. He writes that the main argument in favor of a significant growth in oil demand is the increase in population and income, especially in developing countries. As counterarguments, on the other hand, are measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the development of technologies in the field of electric batteries and Autonomous vehicles.
World level of oil production will increase annually from 2015 approximately 1 million barrels per day, indicated in the forecast. Denning recalled that OPEC is now producing about 33 million barrels per day and by 2040, predicts the growth of daily production to 47 million barrels.
In this regard, the columnist for Bloomberg believes that in order to meet future demand, the cartel will need to increase production over the next 25 years the equivalent of another Saudi Arabia. While Denning drew attention to the fact that the level of production in Nigeria had fallen by 20 percent due to attacks on oil fields in Venezuela – a deep economic crisis, Iraq and Libya have little control over its territory, and Saudi Arabia gathered to become less dependent on oil.
In the forecast of U.S. Department of energy also provides data for other countries-exporters of energy carriers. Russia, according to forecasts of American analysts, will increase natural gas production by 2040 by about 283 billion cubic meters, mainly due to field development in the Arctic and Eastern regions of the country. With China, USA and Russia will have 44% gas production increase in this period, says US Department of energy.
The forecast assumes an average annual growth of Russia’s GDP by 2% between 2012 and 2040 years. It notes that economic growth in the short term significantly influenced by low oil prices and sanctions. In the long run Russia will face problems related to the reduction of the workforce and the need to diversify the economy in order to get rid of the heavy reliance on energy exports, indicated in the forecast. The experts of the US Department of energy are also considered important for economic growth in Russia the reform of state-owned enterprises and of the labour market.