Automobile revolution in India a leader in the growth of oil consumption

Over the past decade, the demand for oil in India grew by an average of 5% per year, and for the first time reached an annual average rate of 4 million barrels./day. in the financial year 2015-16 (ending March 31). In the first quarter of 2016, India has become a world leader in terms of growth in the consumption of raw materials, and this year is expected the country will deprive Japan of the status of the third largest oil consumer in the world. The main driver of the transformation of India into a global player in the oil market was the automotive revolution being experienced by the country, says Reuters energy analyst John Kemp.

The share of gasoline is only 12% in the consumption structure of hydrocarbons (40% diesel fuel), but it is the fastest growing segment of the fuel market of the subcontinent — the vehicle fuel consumption increased by 10% over the past decade, in the 2014-2015 financial year it grew by 11%, in 2015-2016-m — on 14%. According to the latest data of other departments of the country, the Ministry of road transport and highways is the number of cars in India is doubling every seven years, in 2013 it reached 182 million units. While the level of motorization, India lags behind other developing countries, including 17 passenger cars per 1000 population against China has 115 and 215 from Brazil — evidence of the considerable growth potential of the Indian car market.

According to the latest society of Indian automobile manufacturers, cited by Bloomberg, the volume of car sales in the 2015-16 financial year in India grew by 5.6%, to 20 million units. In China, for comparison, over the same period, 25 million were sold in Japan — only 4.9 million vehicles.

In the past decade, the main driver of oil demand has been China — primarily due to the growing consumption of fuel. But in recent years, and China’s demand for oil has slowed down due to the increase in the share of the service sector and the decline of manufacturing industry share in the structure of the Chinese economy.

Place China as the fastest-growing energy market now is India, previously noted in the Oxford Institute for energy studies (*.pdf). “The demand for oil in India began to grow at Chinese rates, though not previously demonstrated that speed — partly due to the fact that the country’s GDP, the service sector dominated the manufacturing sector, and also due to the “political paralysis”, which for several years has been investing in the industry unattractive,” said the authors published earlier this year, the report “oil Demand in India: turn-of-charge. Low oil prices last year and a half, and taken by the Indian government structural reforms, including those aimed at development of transport infrastructure and the creation of 100 million jobs in manufacturing industry, began to change this trend.

Last Thursday, the International energy Agency has recognized India in its monthly report the new “champion” of the oil market. In the first quarter of 2016, the country provided one third of the increase in world demand for raw materials — national demand increased by 400 thousand Barr./day. in annual expression. The share of India as a consumer on the world oil market will continue to grow — quoted by Bloomberg chief economist for Asia Pacific at consultancy IHS Inc. Rajiv Biswas. — Over the next five years, the country’s demand for oil could grow by 2 million barrels./day that will have a very significant impact on the global balance of supply and demand”.

Last year, the IEA in its report (*.pdf) noted that the country, which is home to 18% of the world population (1,325 billion according to the United Nations for 2015), the share of India in the structure of world consumption of primary energy amounted to only 6%. “Energy consumption in India has almost doubled in comparison with 2000, and it has a huge potential for rapid growth”, — was stated in the study. According to the IEA, by 2040 India will ensure an increase in consumption by 6 million barrels./day, China — only 4.8%. And even after 25 years, energy consumption per capita in the country will amount to no more than 40% of the global average, experts claimed.