The order was one of the last available reports closed for the government and the Kremlin on the situation in town-forming enterprises in monotowns — it shows that businesses have nowhere to sell the products and it fills warehouses and unemployment is in these towns is growing.
The document prepared by the Analytical center for the government and the Federal security service, he was sent to the presidential administration and the government. Authenticity confirmed by two sources . The representative of the Analytical center confirmed that such monitoring was carried out. The representative of the Ministry of economic development said that the Ministry has used the report in preparing its report on the conduct of integrated monitoring of the socio-economic situation in mono (it goes to the government every six months). In the press center of the FSO advised to ask for review on may 18.
The material is said that monitoring is prepared on the basis of a list of indicators of financial-economic condition of the enterprise, the portfolio of orders and employment in the enterprise. The survey was attended by 147 companies. The report contains information as at 24 February 2016 (thus held for 40 waves of surveys). The main conclusions that can be drawn on the results of the February survey, the following: production volumes continue to decline, the volume of stocks of enterprises has decreased dramatically, the worst situation at the enterprises, which focus on domestic demand. A significant part of loans to businesses made in the currency that only exacerbated the situation after the next wave of devaluation in the beginning of the year.
“A creeping situation”
“In the course of monitoring the single-industry towns, including analysis of financial, economic and operating performance of core companies, trends were identified, indicating the preservation of crisis phenomena in the majority of the enterprises”, — said the representative of Ministry of economic development.
“We are not inclined to exaggerate the problem, but also not inclined to underestimate her. I’d call it “creeping”. Some businesses are able to get out due to recovery of demand. But it’s not enough to drastically change the situation”, — said a source familiar with the results of the report.
The volume of production in real terms (adjusted for rising prices) in enterprises in single-industry towns for 2015 decreased by 4.8% (this is worse compared to the industry as a whole, where there was a drop of 3.4%). The amount of reserves for last year increased by 10% compared to 2014, but already in the first two months of the year compared to the end of 2015 has fallen by half. “Many businesses are not in a hurry to significantly increase production volumes due primarily to weak domestic demand,” the report says. Analysis of the situation on 15 companies that showed “the lowest growth” of revenue as at 24 February (including “Aldanzoloto GRK” in Yakutia, “Block No. 2 mine, Anzherskaya-southern” in the Kemerovo region and “kholsim (Rus)” in the Saratov region, member of the Swiss group LafargeHolcim), revealed “a fairly acute problem” with finding markets for a significant number of enterprises of monocities. “Many of them are forced to work “in stock”, the report said.
67 companies have provided “free form” to report their estimates of risks for activity. The decline in production and a jump in the exchange rate most of the surveyed enterprises named among the main risks that affect the activities of companies (39% and 31%, respectively) and can affect them in the future. The report shows that 40% of the debt of enterprises in single-industry towns, which assessed the risks, are denominated in foreign currency. In the end, another wave of ruble depreciation led to a rise in the debt burden and increased cost. “The drop in output led to falling revenue, resulting in an increasing number of enterprises began to face the problem of growth of debt burden and timely servicing of debt obligations” — the representative of Ministry of economic development.
Among other significant risks of the enterprise referred to as high cost loans, higher interest rates on previously issued loans, the growth of prices for components and raw materials, the growth of tariffs for energy resources and the unpredictability of state policy in the field of tariff regulation for electricity.
“Companies have formed ideas about what threatens them. “The balance of” risk perception is not changed in quite some time. Interest rates fall, but it is a process of inertia, the problems with the demand exist. Risks do not disappear, they change their “intensity”, — said the source familiar with the situation.
The main feature of the development of negative trends in mono — reduction of the volume of production in enterprises, adds the representative of Minekonomrazvitija. As per the baseline scenario of the socio-economic forecast of economic development, domestic demand in the country in 2016 will be reduced by 1.3%, the industry will return to growth until next year.
Unemployment is rising
For 2015 in these towns, the unemployment rate increased by 20%, while “in all localities, the unemployment rate increased by 10%”, recognized at the end of January 2016 labor Minister Maxim Topilin (quoted on the website of the Ministry). On 1 January 2016 from about three hundred company towns in the 206 the unemployment rate is higher than in Russia on average, in 84 the above in two or more times.
Judging by the report, and according to information from the Ministry of labor, the employment situation continues to deteriorate. The report, citing data from the Ministry of labour said that in these towns the number of unemployed registered in bodies of service of employment increases and the number of vacancies is reduced. On February 1, compared to 1 December 2015, the number of unemployed people registered in employment services in these towns increased by 7.3 thousand people and amounted to 129,2 thousand the Number of vacancies announced by the employment services in these towns, was 83.8 per thousand — remains a shortage of jobs.
The maximum number of the unemployed registered in Tolyatti. On 24 February, according to analysis 1 883 thousand city-forming enterprises were dismissed 10 thousand people, and 84.3 thousand people were in part-time employment, a large part of the work on a reduced schedule.
In March—April 2016 the situation with unemployment and underemployment in single-industry towns has deteriorated, it follows from the comment of the press service of the Ministry of labour in response to the request . On may 1, unemployment in single-industry towns have already reached 139.3 thousand people (referring to those who consists on the account in employment service). As of may 11, 2016 in mono on 2 thousand 710 enterprises plan to dismiss 16 thousand people. Part-time employment are to 106.2 thousand employees. The amount of underemployment in mono is almost one third of the volume of underemployment in Russia as a whole.
Total in Russia there are 319 single-industry towns, which are home to 14 million people.