The fall in oil prices and the subsequent bankruptcy of many companies, engaged in the development of shale oil, will not put an end to the us oil industry, believes the energy information Administration US (EIA), published on Tuesday, the annual long-term report-forecast (*.pdf). On the contrary, by the end of the 2020s the US from oil importer will become its exporter, in 2040, the exports can go the volume, equivalent to 4% of the volume of total consumption of raw materials in the United States.
These findings do not differ from the projections made last year, but the difference is that EIA predicts a slower — especially in the short term — the rise in oil prices than in 2015. For this year, the Agency predicts the average price per barrel of $37, and by 2020-it will be $77 (last year it was expected that by that time she will rise to $80 two years ago to $97). After 2020, oil will continue growing, in particular, for facing all producers need to start developing more and more resource-intensive fields.
In the short term due to unfavorable market conditions, oil production in the US will fall — if, in 2015, average daily production was 9.4 million barrels./day, then the next year it will be about 8.6 million bbl./day. Long-term forecast this year is slightly less ambitious than in 2015: a year ago, EIA predicted that the U.S. by 2020, bypassing Russia in oil production (it will be 11,58 and 10.15 million barrels./day, respectively), but now even more in the long run, 2040 American analysts see the level of production at the level of 11.3 million barrels.
The age of renewable energy
The forecast this year is made in two variant, given the Plan a clean energy signed by President Barack Obama in Paris in December last year, without him. But in both versions, the EIA comes to the conclusion that the next two decades will be marked by active growth of “green energy”.
The share of renewable energy in electricity generation alongside nuclear power in 2020, and by the end of the next decade will surpass such traditional fuel as coal. After 2030 solar energy will provide more than 60% of the total increase in generating capacity.
Coal mining in the United States would steadily decline, from 790 million tons of coal in 2015 to 753 million tonnes in 2022, and by 2040 will drop to 580 million tonnes. It will happen only if the work Plan for clean energy, otherwise the extraction will be fixed approximately at the present level.