The polls and close to the Kremlin Fund ISAPI conducted a survey (results are available) on the preferences of the Russians before the primaries “United Russia” on may 22 (according to their results, the party will make up its electoral list for the Duma elections). A sociological study was held 11-15 may in two dozen regions, where most future competition or is a bright election campaign with the visible participants, said the head of ISAPI Dmitry Badovsky.
In the three regions generally no clear favorite. In one of the constituencies in the Kaliningrad region in current state Duma Deputy Andrei Kolesnik going to vote 21% of the total number going into the primaries. City Council Deputy Alexander Pyatikop support 18%, and former Vice-Governor Evgeny Morozov — 15%.
Kolesnik has confirmed that the region is a “serious” campaign, but declined to comment on the data of VTsIOM, referring to the fact that they had heard about different hands.
A major confrontation is due to the struggle of different regional groups, says Badovsky.
In Primorsky Krai a little predictable was the Vladivostok one-mandatory district. For the Deputy of local legislative Assembly Sergei Sopchuk going to vote 22% of potential primary voters, and for the head of the “Council of parents of many children” Irina Medvedev — 17%. Leader of the regional “SUPPORT of Russia” Konstantin Bogdanenko ready to support 13%.
Badovsky calls Medvedev “dark horse” at the start of the primaries, no one expected it to succeed, he says. According to the expert, in the region expressed a request to update. This was also shown in a survey about preferences among the possible leaders of the local list (Duma elections will be held as single-mandate electoral districts and territorial lists). Ahead was the artistic Director of the Primorsky drama theater Yefim Zvenyatskaya, in the first position it would like to see 10% of the total number of people wishing to come to a vote on may 22. In second place Bogdanenko (6%). Current deputies of the state Duma behind. Viktor Pinsky leader would like to see 5% of participants in the primaries, and Elmira Golubovsky — 4%.
There is no leader and one from single-member districts of St. Petersburg. Current deputies of the state Duma there are flush and with minimal ratings for Mary Maksakova expressed willingness to vote 10% of the possible participants in the primaries, and for Sergey vostretsova — 9%. In third place the Director of the Lyceum № 369 Konstantin Kostov — 8%.
Maksakov said he expects to win, she is sure that it will happen, if in the district will be a high turnout. “During visits to districts, I found that I recognized. Understand that the higher the turnout, the greater will be my result,” she said.
While pollsters predict a low turnout in the district, despite prisutstvie known candidates. Only 16% of respondents said that can come in the primaries, despite the fact that in the whole country participation in the primaries do not exclude 32%. In other regions with high competition turnout is expected to be much higher — in General, the higher the competition, the higher the turnout, says Badovsky.
The regions with the favorites
In other territories of the favorites is noticeable. In one of the districts of Stavropol Krai of the Deputy of the state Duma Olga Kazakova are going to vote 27%. Its colleague Yury Vasiliev support 10%, and the local MP Alexander Sarabara — 8%. Federal Deputy Mikhail Markelov prefer only 3%.
In Karelia the Deputy of the state Duma Valentina Pivnenko gaining 39%, and the Deputy of legislative Assembly and doctor Alisan Gandalovic — 18%. In the Irkutsk region for Deputy Yury tena going to vote 43% of the possible participants in the primaries, and the local Deputy of Timur Sagdeev — 10%. Campaign Sagdeev quite noticeable, he launched a media attack on the opponent, but so far it does not bring him victory, says ISSI Deputy Director for research Alexander Pozhalov.
In single-member Dmitrov district of the Moscow region, according to the opinion poll, famous politician, former state Duma Deputy from the ATP and former member of the “Right things” Boris Nadezhdin fails to convince the voters. Was marrying him progolosovat 12% of participants in the primaries, and for the famous figure skater Irina Rodnina — 40%.
Nadezhdin said that the opinion poll reflects the results of the voting in applying the administrative resource, which, according to him, acts in favor Rodnina. “The heads of municipalities complained to me that they are finished, if I win. But I can win if the elections will come not only dependent on the government, the public sector, but also other voters. It will be savinesti from the weather. In very bad weather my base go out of the house, and in a very good leave the country. Therefore I win, if on Saturday will be rain and no one will leave the cottage, and on Sunday comes the sun”, he said.
A source close to the leadership of “United Russia”, by contrast, argues that the party will try to avoid the use of administrative resources. He recalls that the first Deputy head of the presidential administration, Vyacheslav Volodin has repeatedly set the task to conduct a competitive and open elections.