For January—March 2016 the us economy grew at an annual rate of 0.8 percent, the data show the U.S. government. This is a fairly high figure: previously, the U.S. Department of Commerce previously reported 0.5 percent growth in the first quarter. The revision increased the Agency explained that the fall in private investment in inventories was much weaker than previously estimated.
The consensus forecast of analysts compiled by Reuters, spoke about the expectations of growth of 0.9%. More accurate were the experts of the Danish Saxo Bank, predicted the revision to 0.8% growth. In addition, it is much better than the first quarter of 2015, when GDP growth was 0.6%.
The beginning of the year is traditionally a quiet period in the U.S. economy. After sales for thanksgiving and Christmas in November and December, in the winter of economic development and trade stops. In the last few years, all this is the weather factor: severe frosts in January-February. Thus, the beginning of the current year was for the American economy the most successful since 2013 (then, in the first quarter, GDP grew by 2.4%, in 2014, the index fell by 2.9%).
Overall, the revision rate in the upward direction was not a surprise for analysts. Thus, the currency expert publication DailyFX, Ilya Spivak warned that the strong growth of the us economy will negatively affect the price of gold and oil. The reason is that a positive macroeconomic environment in the United States will lead to a rise in the dollar and, accordingly, falling prices for raw materials and metals.
In addition, the strong performance of the U.S. economy increase the probability of further rate hike in the US Federal reserve. It is expected that tonight the head of the fed Janet Yellen will pay attention to this figure in his speech in Harvard University. To date, the probability that your bet the Federal reserve will hike already in June, Reuters estimated at 26%, and Chicago CME Group — already 38%. The rate increase will also lead to the growth of the dollar, warns CNN.
Since the beginning of the day the Euro against the U.S. dollar has lost 0.3 percent, after the announcement of the data on the U.S. economy, the decline of the European currency has strengthened. By 16:00 GMT the dollar traded at the level of 1.11 per Euro. The cost of a barrel of Brent for the half-hour has decreased from $49,1 to $48,7.