The struggle for “silver”
The liberal democratic party will compete with the Communist party for the second place on elections of the state Duma, according to the latest polls. According to surveys by the all-Russia centre of studying of public opinion (VTSIOM) about the electoral preferences of Russians, the liberal democratic party to the beginning of this year caught up on the popularity of the Communist party, and 22 may (the latest survey) was 2 percentage points ahead of the Communists (11% vs 9%), in which zero held the status of the second party rating.
The same trend captures the public opinion Foundation (FOM). Since the middle of last year, the rating of LDPR has almost doubled, from 6% to 11% and, according to the latest poll on 22 may, one percentage point exceeded the rating of the Communists. Also, according to the FOM poll, the liberal Democrats less negative attitude than to the Communists.
These two parties go together with 2008 (the Communists then was 9%, and LDPR — 7%), but the Communist party was often higher, and now they equaled, says the head FOM Alexander Oslon. The growing support for opposition parties, in his opinion, is associated with a decline in the rating of “United Russia”.
Employee of the election headquarters of one of Moscow’s candidates for the state Duma said that these focus groups also show a high sympathy of voters to the liberal democratic party. The majority of voters like the speech of the leader of the party of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the respondents also making it a political advertisement and praised the slogans of the liberal democratic party. In addition, among the advantages of the party voters say the free consultation lawyers of the liberal democratic party. Zhirinovsky helps pensioners, protecting the Russian people, telling the truth, and very well-known, noted by the respondents.
The ideology in the mainstream
VTSIOM Director General Valery Fyodorov, explaining the current breakthrough of the liberal democratic party, said that obschepatrioticheskoy trend works for Zhirinovsky, who lost Fleur scandal.
Ideas that seemed in the 90 marginal is now mainstream, says political analyst Konstantin Kalachev, referring to the “Imperial thrust of the party, anti-Western course”.
Derzhavnichestvo mood intensified even in the “modernist voters” who had voted for Mikhail Prokhorov, Alexei Navalny, Yabloko: now he prefers the liberal democratic party, says political analyst Alexei Makarkin. “Zhirinovsky has ceased to be marginal in the eyes of the voter, he’s the same [Dmitry] Kiselyov, says the same thing, a successful politician,” says Makarkin.
Against the Communist party
Improved the rating of LDPR is a consequence of the weakening of the Communist party, says political analyst Konstantin Kalachev. The Communist party is one of the main objects of criticism of the liberal democratic party ahead of the elections, confirm the interlocutors in the party. The liberal Democrats hope to win over part of the left electorate. “Our polls showed that left-wing voters are not satisfied with the existing set of parties,” said a member of the Supreme Council of the liberal democratic party Mikhail Degtyarev.
The rating Zhirinovsky is almost always in 2008 was higher than that of the CPRF leader Gennady Zyuganov, now the gap is 2% (according to FOM, 7% versus 5%).
The liberal democratic party intends to use in campaigning, among other things, the protection of Orthodoxy, the words Degtyarev. According to him, the liberal democratic party will criticize the Communist party for “attacks on the Russian Orthodox Church.” The electoral message of the Communist party and “Fair Russia” today is not pronounced, the political scientist, member of the Supreme Council of “United Russia” Dmitry Orlov.
Internal polls show the liberal democratic party that the party is supported by 30% of Russians, the Communist party — 25%, and United Russia — 29%, according to first Deputy head of faction Alexei Didenko. According to him, improvement of the party is due to the “increased pace of work: the party holds daily meetings with voters, the propaganda, the leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky constantly live”.
Indeed, Zhirinovsky — the unconditional leader on number of references on Federal channels in the period from January to may this year, follows from the data of “Medialogia”. The Russian media in General, Zhirinovsky is not quoted more often than the leaders of other Duma parties.
The election campaign of the liberal democratic party beginning in February, running around the country campaign train with their MPs and putting up additional billboards with the logo of the party. At each station, follow the “trains” aid deputies personally communicate with people,” lawyers are deploying mobile reception, which is collected through complaints, according to the website of the party. Traditionally, the liberal democratic party focuses on outdoor advertising, said Didenko. The ideology of the party is still best reflects the slogan of 2003 — “We are for the poor! We for Russian!”, says the Deputy. Another popular slogan — “Enough to humiliate the Russians,” he adds.
In fact, according to Orlov, the liberal democratic party has no ideology, and she, despite the name, has nothing to do with liberalism.
The rating is not the result
The rating of the party in the polls — “it’s not something that will be elections in September”, says Oslon. The fact that the buyer would have bought in the store if he had money and what he buys when he has money, is two different things, ” he explains. Moreover, the expert says, when survey rates are not the number who came to the polls, and in General of the number of voters.
Now people have no idea that in September we have to go to the polls and for whom they will vote closer to the election the situation will change, says Fedorov. In LDPR there is a problem of leadership, which will become particularly acute in the presidential elections of 2018 and in the next Duma elections, points to another problem of the party of Zhirinovsky eagles.
In the elections Communist party is still likely to overtake the liberal democratic party, predicts a source close to the leadership of the presidential administration. “The LDPR electorate youth, and for the Communist party pensioners more likely to vote. They do not need to mobilize, they will come to the polls. The youth also goes to the polls much less frequently,” he explains.
In 2011, before the previous Duma elections, the Communists gained an average of 11% of the votes, the liberal democratic party — 9% (according to FOM). After the elections the liberal Democrats won 11 and 67% of the votes, the Communists – 19,19%.
In the elections in 2016, the liberal democratic party intends to repeat the success of 1993, when the party won nearly 23% (and became one), insists Chairman of the Supreme Council of LDPR, Vice-speaker of the state Duma Igor Lebedev.
The Communist party is likely to be the second, predicts Kalachev. According to him, if you take the ratio of candidates from each of these parties winning municipal and regional elections, and the total number nominated, the Communist party, and the performance is much better. But it is obvious that the liberal democratic party comes on the heels of the Communists, ” the expert concludes.