In the near future the dollar will cease to be traded in the usual range 64,50-67 RUB, says Alan Kaziev. Its growth will “be explosive”, because during this time, speculators have accumulated a large number of positions both in one and in the other direction, writes in his review this morning’s analyst. He cited figures from the exchange showing that the number of individuals awaiting the rise of the dollar, almost five times the number of players bet on a further strengthening of the ruble.
“Given the fact of where is the curve volatility on the ruble, plus the current direction of the carry trade, we expect growth of the dollar,” said Alan Kaziev . The analyst says that much will depend on the outcome of the meeting of OPEC countries to be held today in Vienna, and from data on crude oil inventories from the US Department of energy.
“Against this background, we propose to monitor closely the mark of 67 rubles, the overcoming of which should be used to build positions on dollar”, — said in the review of Alfa-Bank. According to Kazieva, there is a possibility that the dollar may strengthen to 74.9 RUB However, when this happens it indicates.
The analyst warned earlier of the completion of the period of strengthening of the ruble and a possible increase in the dollar to 80 rubles. In its forecast Kaziev referred to the technical studies, according to which a reversal of the pair dollar/ruble may start after reaching a rate of 63 rubles per dollar. “On April 19 the minimum price for the opening pair dollar/ruble reached RUB 62,68”, — he pointed out in his review, published in late April.
In March, Alfa-Bank also forecast a strengthening of the dollar to 80 rubles and offered to investors earn on foreign exchange rates. “Calculations made on the basis of technical analysis say that in March the dollar will cost 80 rubles, while the price of oil $per barrel 36-35”, — stated in the review released then. However, this did not happen: in March and April, the rouble strengthened: the value of the dollar has declined by about 7.5 rubles (73,4 to 66 rubles). “We proceeded from the fact that oil prices in March has already increased significantly and investors can start out of speculative assets. But the correction in the oil market did not happen: first, oil fell slightly, and then began to rise to new highs. On this wave, the ruble continued to strengthen gradually,” explained then Kaziev.
Thursday, June 2, the dollar is worth on the Moscow exchange RUB to 66.7 (minus 44 kopecks from yesterday’s closing level). “Today is a big value for the market will have the results of the summit of OPEC. Yesterday there were reports that cartel members may again agree on the limitation of production (at the December conference, this question was removed from the agenda)”, — wrote in his review of Sberbank CIB analysts Tom Levinson and Iskander Lutsky. According to them, rumors about the agreements in the OPEC, probably, will support the ruble. Analysts recommend investors to buy the dollar if the rate will drop to the level 66,25 — 66,5 RUB.