The Bank of Russia has interviewed 56 banks, which account for 85% of the total loan portfolio. Nearly half of banks surveyed in the second and third quarters are going to lower interest rates on all types of loans, to mitigate the requirements for borrowers and collateral for loans. While more than half of respondents (55%) expect increased demand for new loans.
Of the Central Bank in its study notes that credit conditions improved in the first quarter. In particular, banks reduced the rates, hoping to reduce inflation. In March on a short-term ruble loans to the population average rate decreased in comparison with December by 0.3 percentage points to 23.9 per cent per annum, and on the medium-term — by 0.7 percentage points to 20%. For large companies the conditions are also improved — the average rate decreased by 0.5 p. p compared to December and reached 12.7%. In the long term rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 13.4%. For the segment of small and medium businesses the short-term rate fell by 0.3 percentage points from 16.4% to 16.1%. However, lowering rates, banks did not change the requirements for collateral on loans.
In the second and third quarter, banks expect that in the retail segment, including mortgages, will continue to decline rates and the values of the marginal cost of borrowing, as well as soften particular requirements for collateral for the loan. The banks will encourage competition, otmechaet of the Central Bank. About seven banks plan to join the subsidy program ipotechnyj loans to improve credit conditions in this segment, according to the materials of the survey of the Central Bank. However, the head of risk of the Bank “Globex” Evgeny retyunsky does not predict a noticeable lowering of rates in this segment.
For corporate borrowers reduced interest rate on loans, the banks hope to attract more reliable borrowers. To improve conditions on corporate loans impact of stabilization in some sectors of the economy, primarily export-oriented oil and gas, metallurgy and chemical industry, said the head of the group and Bank ratings of an ACRE Kirill Lukashuk. According to the forecasts of Eugene Regnskog, the average interest rate on short-term credits for large companies will decline to 11.5% -12%, that is 0.7-1.2 percentage points From borrowers-small businesses the rate will be 17-19%, medium companies with turnover from 1 billion to 6 billion rubles, the rate will decrease to 13%-14,5%. In the first quarter the average interest rate on SME loans was 16.1%. According to the forecasts of the managing partner NAFI, Pavel samieva interest rates on consumer loans of the population will decrease by the end of summer by 1-2 percentage points
Of the Central Bank in its study with reference to the surveyed banks said that lending to small and medium enterprises easing the conditions will be the same as in the segment of large borrowers. Chief analyst of Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov says that to improve lending conditions for banks will transition from a liquidity deficit to a surplus. The rate will not be the key factor influencing decisions of banks in this area, because the cost of raising funds has declined relative to the key rate, says the analyst.
Banks are counting on higher demand for loans, especially in the segment of consumer loans, said the study of the Central Bank.
As says the Deputy Chairman of the Board of OTP Bank Alexander Vasiliev (participated in the survey, the Central Bank), the Bank is planning to lower interest rates in the segment of POS-lending, but not very much. “With lower rates, we first will look which product is purchased by the client. Usually the payment discipline is higher among customers buying furniture and fur”, — said the banker. Overall, OTP Bank predicts an increase in the approval of loan applications and the flow of higher quality borrowers.
Not all banks are optimistic. For example, the Chairman of the management Board of Bank Vozrozhdenie Andrey Shalimov said that despite the past lower rates on mortgages and on consumer loans significant changes in rates will not be. “Some borrowers are improving financial condition, but targeted,” he said.
The Bank of Russia said in the study that the banks have adapted to difficult economic conditions and argues that in the banking sector are prerequisites for a gradual recovery of lending activity without compromising quality of credit portfolios.