In the annual report on the development of the banking sector regulator announced that in 2015 the Bank of Russia conducted a stress test of the banking sector, a scenario which implies a decline in oil prices to $25 dollars per barrel and the drop in the national currency up to 82 rubles per dollar. In this scenario, the loss of the banking sector amounted to 300 billion rubles, says the report of the Central Bank on the development of the banking sector.
According to the chief analyst of Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov, the banking system is able to absorb such a loss, but the stress, of course, will lead to a new peak of revocation of licenses. While a comparable shock the banking sector has experienced in 2015, because excluding Sberbank loss of banks amounted to 91 billion rubles., says the analyst of the savings Bank. However, the real scale of the problem more, because they have to, uchityvaetsya constituting fictitious profits as dividends paid by banks to each other, and the support of the shareholders. In the end, the loss of the banking sector in 2015, excluding Sberbank amounted to RUB 260 billion — not including banks with revoked during the license year.
By the end of 2015, the banking sector earned a profit of 192 billion rubles.
The stress test assumed the formation of 100% reserves on extended loans and impairment of collateral for loans to 50%. Also, the Central Bank took into account the recapitalization of banks through the DIA, held in 2015 and dosoznanie reserves Ukrainian assets of some major banks.
In the case of such a scenario, most of the losses (71%) have further provisions for bad loans, whose share will grow by 8 p. p. to 17.8% of the portfolio. 63 banks, which account for 19.2% of assets, will face a shortage of capital, 12 — liquidity shortages. The deposits will grow in nominal terms by 9.6% and in real terms, by 6.3%. The capital adequacy ratios of the banking sector will not fall below the values established by the regulator.
Head of Department of the analysis of the financial sector NRA Karina Artemyev agrees that the main risk of the banking sector — a global deterioration in the quality of borrowers. And the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions is not the only catalyst for these problems, she says.
The fact that one-fifth of the banks will face under the scenario of problems with capital, said that some credit institutions infusion of additional funds are needed now, says Artemyev. Banks have accumulated a lot of skeletons in the closet, accumulated in the last crisis, said Artemyev, and the banks they are trying to mask. “Already, some banks need additional capital, however, the owner may not always make money,” she says.
As for liquidity, massive withdrawals of funds by depositors can be triggered by a sharp fall in the exchange rate, as it was in December 2014, says senior Director of financial institutions at Fitch Alexander Danilov. Some banks can also be a problem with a report of additional collateral for derivative transactions with the currency or repo transactions, he adds.
However, the influence of the national currency on the capital ratios of the banking sector — something largely accounting, Danilov believes. In case of problems, the Bank of Russia can always allow banks to use a preferential rate, as was done in December 2014. “The explosive growth of problem loans, we also likely won’t see, because banks will be even more active than now, to restructure the loans so as to reserve them as profit”, — predicts analyst.