“United Russia” faced with plummeting ratings

“Unexplained jumps”

The fall of the rating of “United Russia” was recorded by the Levada center in the last survey, which took place may 27-30. In this period the ruling party were ready to vote 35% of the total number of respondents. This is significantly below the levels at which a rating was recorded during the year. In April United Russia was going to support 42% of respondents. In February, the readiness to vote for the ruling party expressed 40%.

Respectively, decreased the proportion of “United Russia” among those who are willing to participate in voting and have already decided on the choice of the party. One of them to support United Russia in may were ready 53% vs. 60% in April. First year undecided among the rating of “United Russia” has decreased by 12 percentage points, in January it was 65%.

The Deputy Director “Levada-center” Alexei Grazhdankin says that it is impossible to argue that the decline in the rating of “United Russia” do “so fast”. “We need to wait for the June measurement, perhaps it is a random fluctuation,” he says.

But, according to Grazhdankina, the tendency to falling of a rating is, in any case. “Dynamics are apparent. In principle the party in power during election campaign always loses the electoral rating as opposition parties became during this period more visible, attracting to participate in the elections have not been informed of interest in electoral group. Another thing is that this time fell not only the share of “United Russia” of those identified with the choice of the party, but calling her a share of the total number of respondents,” he noted. According to the sociologist, a similar situation was observed during the elections of the mayor of Moscow in 2013, when Sergei Sobyanin actually did not conduct the election campaign and his rating is constantly falling.

VTSIOM does not record the fall of the rating of the party. On the website of the state of the sociological service provides a survey according to which on may 22 for the “United Russia” was going to vote to 46.2% of the total number of respondents. On 24 April, the intention was expressed of 48.5%. According to FOM, the rating of “United Russia” in the last week of may increased from 47% to 49% (the survey may 28-29).

“Ratings fluctuate constantly, it is important not to go on about these numbers, and continue to work closely in the regions with people,” said Deputy Secretary of General Council of “United Russia” Olga batalina.

Director of research close to the Kremlin Fund ISAPI Alexander Fire says that does not find a logical explanation for such a serious decline of the rating of “United Russia”. According to him, this is not typical, when the rating of the ruling party falls, and the approval of all levels of government, according to the same Levada-center is stable and even growing. “Perhaps these results are related to methodological features of the center. They have in the past there were unexplained jumps”, — the expert adds.

Other parties

A poll by the Levada center revealed a significant increase in the rating of the Communist party and LDPR. In may the share of the Communist party of the number of undecided has grown to 21% against 15% in April (i.e. almost half). Of the total number of respondents for the party are going to vote 14%, a month before the Communists were supported by 10%. “We see good response to our program due to the fact that the government is not taking real steps to overcome the crisis,” — said the Deputy of the state Duma from the Communist party Alexander Yushchenko.

The share of the liberal democratic party among undecided now is 14% and not 10% as in April. Two percentage points — to 9% — and increased the total number of people wishing to support the party of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Polls VTSIOM and FOM earlier gave the liberal democratic party and is the second place after the party in power.

“Fair Russia”, according to the Levada center, may not pass in the state Duma (for this you need to recruit 5%). Ready for the party vote only 4% of those identified and only 2% of all respondents.

“Sociology biased, “Levada-center” tends to be liberal-comprador position, — said first Deputy Chairman of the faction of the just Russia Mikhail Yemelyanov. — None of the predictions of the Levada center did not materialize, at all recent elections “Fair Russia” received more than 10%, the Levada center gave us 2-3%, it’s not serious.”

The decline of interest

Russians in General are losing interest in elections, according to the poll by the Levada center. 44% of respondents said they “probably” or “definitely” plan to participate in the vote. In January the figure was 51%. I doubt that they will vote for, or sure that not going to do 26% in January, the same answers were given by 21% of respondents.

Grazhdankin says he does not recall before the election the interest was falling. “Usually during a campaign there is a growth. But this time, apparently, people don’t see the intrigue in the elections. Duma opposition are no different from the ruling party and non-parliamentary parties are actually not doing anything to attract voters,” — says the sociologist.

“Most power ratings began to decline last year, and the rating of “United Russia” among them. Theoretically, the primaries could fix the downtrend, but that it was necessary that their participants out in the field: created full agitate, conducted meetings with real voters, not rounded up to the official “debate” with the public sector. Nothing that was not done,” says political strategist, former Deputy head of presidential administration of Bashkiria Abbas Gallyamov.

The loss of confidence in the party in power inevitably leads to decreasing voter turnout, adds Gallyamov. “Theoretically, the opposition can pick up the votes of disillusioned voters, but this will not automatically occur; it requires the right message and a compelling campaign. Can someone from the opposition parties to organize it — this is the main intrigue of the upcoming elections”, — concluded the analyst.