First candidate: as Hillary Clinton has reached the final of the presidential race

Electoral arithmetic

The final victory of Clinton over Bernie Sanders in the fight for the right to represent Democratic party on presidential election in the United States on Tuesday, reported the Associated Press (AP). According to calculations of the Agency, a total of 2383 support Clinton delegate the future of the Congress party in Philadelphia, which is to be held the formal election of the democratic candidate. According to the AP, Clinton, 1812 in addition to the regular delegates are ready to vote 571 the so-called super-delegates — senior party functionaries, who can vote for a particular candidate, not taking into account the results of the preliminary vote in the States.

The Democrats have yet to hold primaries in such major States as California and new Jersey. But if you focus on the data from the AP, 1569 Sanders with their delegates ‘ votes has lost its arithmetic chances to catch up with Clinton. However, he has not yet announced the termination of the struggle, and calls to wait for the party Congress and to see how, in reality, superdelegates will vote.

Clinton herself, who will be the first female candidate for President of the United States, said that the country is “on the verge of a historic, unprecedented event”.

The secrets of success

For Clinton, the current presidential campaign — the second in the last eight years. In 2008, she lost the democratic nomination to Barack to the future President, at that time little known Senator from Illinois Barack Obama.

The fact that now in his own party, Clinton turned out to have no rivals of equal political weight, because of its unique experience. When those in political circles, which she got, being first lady (1992-2000), a Senator from new York (2001-2009) and Secretary of state (2009-2013) has played a role in her nomination and support from the party elite, says The Washington Post.

Work on the bugs

In contrast to the last, losing campaign, Clinton has managed to attract to their side the majority of black voters, which ensured her victory in several States. As noted by The Washington Post, support for the black population, Clinton has secured her promise to continue the policies of Barack Obama, as well as good memories of this part of the electorate of the presidency of bill Clinton.

To maximize support among liberal-minded voters, Clinton has changed his position on a number of issues in comparison with 2008. In particular, she stated that her support for the war in Iraq was a “mistake”, called for the legalization of gay marriage have softened their position on illegal immigration and called for tighter control over the circulation of weapons.

In addition, Clinton has opposed Pacific partnership, which involves the creation of a free trade space on both sides of the Pacific ocean (the agreement involves 11 Pacific countries, including the United States). At the same time, occupying the post of Secretary of state, Clinton supported this project. As stated by CNN chief strategist of the Obama campaign in 2008, David Axelrod, in this case we are talking about a “classic political solution, when you change the position to one that is more popular now.”

Democratic socialism

On some issues the position Clinton was approached with the position of Bernie Sanders, who positioned himself as a “democratic socialist”. Like Sanders, Clinton supports an increase in the level of the minimum wage (now $7.25 per hour, Clinton proposes to increase it to $12, Sanders — $15).

In the issue of education, Clinton’s less radical than its rival in the primaries. Sanders offered to make the free tuition at public colleges, Clinton is limited by the plan to allocate $17.5 billion on educational grants.

Both candidates from the Democratic party during the campaign was proposed to launch an ambitious program for the development of alternative energy sources (by 2020 Clinton offers to install about 500 million panels for generating solar energy).

But the first woman candidate stands on a much more conservative position than Sanders, in foreign Affairs. Clinton supports the active participation of the United States in the fight against “Islamic state” (banned in Russia as a terrorist organization), supports the training of Syrian opposition fighters to combat the terrorists and also allows keeping a limited military contingent in Afghanistan.

Sanders, in turn, advocated the complete withdrawal of us troops from Afghanistan, the cessation of training Syrian forces, as well as for deciding fight ISIS forces in the region.

Support group

The Clinton campaign is willing to support big business representatives. She was the leader in fundraising — according to statistics maintained by the organization Center for Responsive Politics, the former Secretary of state gathered for the campaign in excess of $289 million, of which $147 million were for large private donations.

The largest donators to the Clinton campaign by the Fund of George Soros, Soros Fund Management (over $7 million), Euclidean Capital Fund billionaire James Simons (more than $7 million), owned by the Pritzker family the Pritzker Group investima ($6.5 million). Eight years ago, the main supporters for Obama and Clinton were major investment banks — JP Morgan Chase, Coldman Sachs, Citigroup.

Clinton was supported by the mayor of new York bill de Blasio, Governor of California Jerry brown and is influential in the US media as The New York Times, who wrote that the voters “have a chance to choose the most qualified candidate in modern history”.

At this point Clinton still not formally enlisted the support of incumbent President Barack Obama, however, the June 7 Bloomberg referring to the informed source reported that the American leader this week may formally support her candidacy.

The basis of the financing campaign of Sanders, by contrast, amounted to not support big business and billionaires, and donations of ordinary citizens. About 62% of the $208 million that he collected, accounted for a small donation.

Yastreb for Russia

From the very beginning of his presidential campaign, Clinton, who as Secretary of state of the United States, was one of the ideologists of the “reset” of relations with Russia, began to position himself as a politician able to oppose the claims of Moscow. In his first big speech after the start of the presidential campaign in June 2015 Clinton stressed that she had to rebut such opponents like Vladimir Putin”.

Mention the negative aspects of the Republican candidate, Donald trump, Clinton said that his victory would mean “holiday” in the Kremlin.

From the speeches of Clinton, it is clear that a return to the policy of “reset” in relations with Russia — not the most likely scenario. In January 2016 on the question, will it re-Russia “reset button” Clinton replied that “it would depend on what I get in return”.

The rivalry with trump

According to the latest polls, Clinton is marginally ahead of its rival-Republican Donald trump, who secured the nomination in late may. According to polls IBD/TIPP, dated 6 June, Clinton supported 45% of voters, trump — 40%.

Among the factors that, according to the American press, can play in favor of Clinton, — internal split among Republicans and their supporters after unexpected success in the primaries billionaire.

Trump has so far failed to correct the trend of elections 2008 and 2012, when the vast majority of Hispanic voters (70%) supported Democrats. According to the may polls, trump is ready to support from 18 to 23% of Hispanic voters — in many ways, these modest figures due to the strong statements about trump’s construction of a wall on the border with Mexico.

In favor of victory Clinton says another factor — analysts at Moody’s, which since 1980 accurately predict the outcome of the presidential election using his model, this time called the most probable outcome of the victory of the candidate from Democrats.

Whose President

Unlike trump, the core of the electorate which is people, not College-educated, white Christians, and voters are moderate to conservative views, the electoral basis of the Clinton women over 35, voters older than 65, College graduates, and black voters.