In the period from 2015 to 2021, the demand for gas will increase annually by 1.5%, below the previous six-year forecasts, according to Bloomberg, citing a presentation entitled “mid-term report on the natural gas market”, presented on Wednesday by the International energy Agency in Paris. Previously, the average annual rate of growth of demand in the perriod between 2014 and 2020 was projected at 2% from 2013 to 2019 — 2.5%.
The slowdown in demand due to the decline in the use of raw materials in Japan and the United States, where energy production it is replaced with renewable energy and “very cheap” coal, says the IEA.
According to the Agency, the excess supply will remain on global gas markets until 2018, and the balance of supply and demand should not be expected until 2021. The production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will grow by 2021, 45%, and 90% of this growth will be from USA and Australia.
Pressure on the markets will have returned to action after the Japanese nuclear power plant, cheap coal and Russian gas supplies to Europe, the IEA stresses. In Europe the consumption will annually grow by 0.3% after years of decline, and Russian gas will limit the potential supply in this region LNG, the report said.
In the United States by 2021 it is expected a stagnation of gas demand for electricity generation after its growth of 20% in 2015. The us government will support the use of solar and wind energy.
Gas consumption in developed Asian countries will decline during the forecast period by 0.2% annually, with a drop in demand of 11% in Japan tempered by growth in South Korea and Australia. The largest factor influencing the volume of demand will be China, where gas consumption will grow annually by 9.1%. According to IEA, if the demand from China slowed, the situation of excess supply will persist for a “significant part of the 2020-ies”.
Gas production will grow from 2015 to 2021 1.5% annually. The slowdown of deliveries in comparison with the previous period due to a fall in investment due to low prices and demand, said IEA.
For the period, Russia will increase gas production by 10 billion cubic meters, informs “RIA Novosti” with reference to the report of IEA, the demand will fall slightly due to weak economic growth. In 2015 gas consumption in the country fell by 1.5% due to the economic downturn and warm weather.
In Ukraine the demand for gas decreased in 2015 by 20%, and this level will continue in the medium term, said the Agency “Prime”. The reason the IEA indicates lower consumption by households in connection with the modernization of the heating system and the adoption of measures to increase energy efficiency, and ongoing recession.
The Agency notes that the demand for gas allowed Ukraine to reduce its dependence on supplies from Russia, which from 2011 to 2015 has been reduced by 90%. Half of the gas consumption in Ukraine provides for the expense of its own production.