Moscow. June 7. The world Bank (WB) expects a decline of Russia’s GDP in 2016, 1.2%, growth of 1.4% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018, according to the Bank’s June report “Global economic prospects” (Global Economic Prospects).
Earlier, in April, the Bank in its 35th report on the Economics of Russia “the Long road of economic recovery” was given rating of fall of the Russian economy in the baseline scenario (based on average oil price in 2016 of $37 per barrel in 2017 – $48 per barrel in 2018 – $51,4) 1.9% in 2016, 1.1% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. In January, the world Bank predicted that the Russian economy will decline this year by 0.7% (in April, this assessment was assigned by the Bank of the optimistic scenario).
The official forecast of Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation for the current year envisages a fall in GDP of 0.2%. Analysts are more pessimistic: according to the consensus forecast, the economy will fall by 1%.
The growth of Russia’s GDP in 2017-2018, according to the new forecast of the world Bank close to the April estimate to optimistic scenario – at prices of $53 and $55 per barrel, the Bank was expecting growth of 1.7% and 2% respectively.
“Russia has a hard time adjusting to the continuing low level of oil prices, trade embargoes, and geopolitical challenges, compounded by the tight fiscal and monetary policies. However, there are tentative signs that the downturn in some sectors may have reached bottom”, – stated in the report.
Forecast global growth in 2016, the world Bank downgraded to 2.4% from 2.9%, which he expected in January. In 2017, world GDP will grow, according to the Bank, 2.8% in 2018 to 3%.
The Bank downgraded the growth estimate for the economy of developing countries as a whole. In 2016 she, in his opinion, will increase by 3.5% (January forecast of 4.1%), in 2017 4.4% (previous forecast was 4.7%) in 2018 by 4.7% (4.9%). The forecast for GDP growth of China in 2016-2017, the Bank left unchanged at 6.7% and 6.5%, respectively, in 2018 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.3%.
In the advanced economies, GDP growth in 2016 will amount to 1.7% (previous 2.2%) in 2017 and 1.9% (2,1), in 2018 – 1,9% (2%).
Forecast on growth in USA WB lowered in comparison with January to 1.9% from 2.7% in 2017 and 2.2% from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.1% from 2.2%.
Economic growth in the Eurozone, analysts say the Bank will be at the level of 1.6% in 2016-2017, and 1.5% in 2018 (up 0.1 percentage points worse than expected in these years in January). According to Japan’s growth estimate downgraded to 0.5% in 2016 from 1.3% to 0.5% in 2017 from 0.9% to 0.7% in 2018, from 1.3%.