The Russia’s GDP growth may resume in the third quarter of this year, but to repeat the “feat” of the early 2000-ies, when the economy gained an average of 7%, does not help even high oil prices, warns the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. The world economy, he said, much has changed in the “new normality” the high growth rate will retain only those developing countries that will be able to adapt to those changes.
“In this situation Russia’s economic policy should be aimed at raising potential growth that can be achieved through better use of labor resources, capital accumulation through investment growth and the productivity of labor and capital,” – said Ulyukayev in the author’s article published today in the “Vedomosti”.
After failing to fit into the “new normal” world economy, Russia, according to the Minister, at risk of getting stuck on inappropriate for her average annual GDP growth rate of 2%.
“These rates for the Russian economy are unacceptable, as are the reduction of our stake in the global economy, loss of competitiveness, the fall in the standard of living of the population relative to most countries,” – said the head of Ministry of economic development, describing a very real problem on the trajectory of a 4% GDP growth”.
In new conditions the main engine of economic growth, in the opinion of the Minister, will be increased investment, primarily in infrastructure.
“The advantage of infrastructure investment in comparison with other types is the high multiplier, low dependence on the stagnating consumer demand and limited global demand. In addition, the infrastructure in Russia neconventionala by world standards and is often a limiter of economic growth. According to our estimates, the increase in the share of investment in fixed capital up to 25% of GDP increases to potential GDP by 1.2 percentage points, with up to half of this increase can be achieved is infrastructure investment,” – said Ulyukayev.
Conditions required to maximize the potential of investment in infrastructure the speaker calls minimize risks to private investors (including through state guarantees), to create a transparent long-term tariffs and market infrastructure and project bonds, as well as tax benefits for them.
In addition, the Minister of economic development considers it necessary to increase investment in high-tech and innovative sectors, including science, education and health.
The Minister also warned that the investment model of the economy will not be able to work effectively in conditions of insufficient demand for manufactured products. At the same time, the domestic market to provide the desired volume of demand will not be able, manufacturers need access to the global market.
“The devaluation created a good macroeconomic preconditions for the growth of exports. However, in terms of difficulty of access to Bank credit, no scaling of measures of state support they will not be realized. Here it is necessary to mobilize the entire Arsenal of the state, financial and non-financial support of export”, – said the speaker.
Among the necessary measures, the Minister took fold increase in funding to support exports, a significant simplification of administrative procedures, reduction of the amount of import customs duties on components and equipment.
An important role in accelerating the growth of the Russian economy, according to the speaker, to be played in the improved utilization of human capital and the flexibility of the labour market, including through the expansion of the practice of concluding fixed-term employment contracts, the simplification of dismissal procedures, as well as increasing the age of retirement to 63 to 65 years both for men and for women.
“It is not so much for balancing the pension system, but to extend the active productive life of future retirees and reduce the deficit of labour resources in the market. It is necessary to ensure the comfortable conditions of their employment engagement (flexible schedule, part-time employment). The same applies to the promotion of employment of women with children, persons with disabilities and other persons with limited competitiveness in the labour market”, – said the speaker.
The Minister also called for the adoption of measures that would simplify for the Russians associated with the change of job moving from one city to another. Among these measures the speaker took the development of rental housing market, as well as the removal of administrative obstacles to access to social services and education of children when parents change residence.
“Integrated use of measures aimed at extensive and intensive development of production factors, are able to provide the growth potential of the economy with long and stable dynamics”, – concluded the speaker.