Moscow. June 9. The international monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that average annual prices of Brent crude oil to $51 per barrel by 2021.
“The average annual price of oil in 2016 will be $36 per barrel in 2017 – $42 per barrel in 2021 – $51 per barrel,” – said in a regular review of the IMF on the situation in the oil market and the economies of the oil States of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.
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However, according to the IMF estimates, occurred the fall in oil prices could put pressure on the budgets of oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf. To stabilize and diversify the economies of these States, the authorities will have to implement structural reforms.
“As for the oil countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, etc.), they also require structural reform and the strengthening of control over the financial system to maintain financial sector stability. However, in any case, the countries of the region will affect the growing political uncertainty,” notes the Fund.
The IMF notes that the devaluation of currencies in countries of the region intensified inflationary pressures, particularly in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, where, according to forecasts, inflation this year will reach double digits for first time in over 15 years.
Fund analysts emphasize that the fall in world oil prices has created difficulties for the banking sector of the countries of the region. These problems are associated with the slowdown in lending, the increase in problem loans, reduced liquidity.
“The countries of the region, the Caucasus and Central Asia will also need to solve the problems existing in the banking sector, especially with high dollarization,” notes the Fund.