Reduced demand for gasoline by 20% provided for in the aggressive scenario, research analyst Wood Mackenzie of Prajit Ghosh seen by The World Street Journal. This means that the current level of consumption of 9 million bbl./the day will decrease by 2 million barrels.
According to Ghosh, the above scenario is based on the fact that the market will start a massive supply of cheap electric vehicles that can pass a relatively large distance in a relatively short time. According to the author of the study, it is more likely that by 2035 electric cars will take 10% of the market, which will lead to a drop in demand for gasoline by 5%.
Ghosh believes that the main driver of the trend could be the emergence in 2017 on the market Tesla Model 3, which will cost in the region of $35 thousand In this case, he said, electric cars will get the chance to be mainstream means of transportation, and in 2025 there will be a sharp drop in demand for gasoline.
In the study by Wood Mackenzie notes that soon the market entry of several low-cost models. In particular, recalls Ghosh, this year is expected to start sales of the Chevrolet Bolt at a price of $30 thousand
The publication stresses that the spread of electric vehicles in the United States will not necessarily lead to bad consequences for companies focused on fossil fuels. According to the Wood Mackenzie assessment the demand for oil is likely kompensiruet growth in gas consumption, because it will increase demand for electricity which will be supplied with a gas-fired power plants and renewable energy sources.
In contrast to the view of Ghosh oil and gas companies less optimistic about the future of electric cars, writes the WSJ. The publication quoted BP chief economist Spencer Dale, who last week in Houston said that internal combustion engines still have considerable advantages over their electric alternatives, and therefore he does not expect wide distribution of electric vehicles in the next 20 years.
This year, electric vehicles accounted for less than 1% of the total sales of cars in the USA, reminds WSJ. The publication notes that the main challenge for manufacturers of electric vehicles is the increase of power consumption of a battery, which allowed it to travel long distance without recharging.
Tesla decided to put on their cars more powerful battery that will allow to pass without charging more than 200 miles (320 km). Its competitors also redouble my efforts, writes the WSJ. The development of main electric vehicles engaged in the Nissan, Hyundai and Volkswagen; Ford is going to invest over the next four years to $4.5 billion, and the development of 12 new electric and hybrid models, Volvo has set a goal of producing by 2025, 1 million electric cars.