World stock indexes rose on the results of a survey on Brexit


Monday, June 20, the European and Asian markets rose on the news from Britain, where the day before held a public opinion poll regarding the country’s potential exit from the European Union. For the UK out of the EU are the 42% of the population, as against 45%, the survey conducted by Survation. Previously, the ratio was 43 and 48%, respectively. This is the first study on this topic conducted after the murder of British member of Parliament Joe Cox, actively supporting the presence of the country in the European Union. The survey was conducted on Friday and Saturday.

A referendum on withdrawal of Britain from the European Union will take place on June 23. So the decision was made for him to vote more than half took part. To participate in the voting can citizens of the UK above 18 years of age and citizens of Ireland and Commonwealth countries resident in the UK and Gibraltar. Formally, voting can take about 45 million people. Filed on June 7 in total were registered around 86% of potential referendum participants.

World stock indexes rose on the new results of a public opinion poll before the referendum. The EURONEXT 100 index, which includes stocks of the largest and most liquid European companies, rose by 3.37%, the index of European blue-chip EURO STOXX 50 Index rose by 3.25%. The German DAX (growth by 3.3%) and French CAC 40 (an increase of 3.4%). The index of the British stock exchange rose by 2.86%.

On Asian trading floors observed similar dynamics: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose today by 2.34%, Korean Hang Seng gained 1.69 percent.

Growth also showed stock markets of developing countries. The Turkish stock index BIST 100 rose to 2.39%, up to 77,235 paragraph, the Polish stock market showed an increase of 2.17% to 1792,12 points.

The MICEX index rose 1.22% to 1899,77 points, and RTS has added 2.52% to 933,36 points.

Director of global governance at work in the stock market, “Renaissance Capital” Maxim Orlovsky says that investors believe that the UK’s exit from the EU will not happen, and the background of the growing confidence of the markets. He notes that the emerging market indexes do not grow as fast as in Europe, because the situation with Brexit increasingly in Europe.

Senior portfolio Manager GHP Group Fedor Bizikov said that the situation is very reminiscent of last year’s markets, when investors were expecting the decision about the debt of Greece. “Then also saw substantial growth, until it became clear that investors are willing to accept the terms of restructuring proposed by the Greek authorities,” he said. According to the Manager, the release of the latest public opinion poll in Britain showed investors that the politicians have reached a consensus: Brexit should not be held in any case. “Investors responded optimistically,” says Bizikov. According to him, the growth of markets and currencies of developing countries more influenced by oil prices. On Monday, the Brent price rose by 1.87%, breaking the mark of $50,1 per barrel.

“If before 23 June will not be any major event, the markets may continue,” — said Orlovsky, noting that in the case of withdrawal of Britain from the EU the markets of Europe, expects a deep correction.

The growth of stock markets accompanied by the strengthening of most currencies against the U.S. dollar, including the ruble. 15:40 the dollar on the Moscow exchange reached RUB 63,90 Euro -72,52 RUB Also increased the Euro-dollar exchange rate — 0,048%, to $1,1325 per Euro, the British pound rose against the dollar by 1.19% to $1,46 per pound. Among the currencies of developing countries strengthen against the dollar, the leader of the Turkish Lira and South African Rand.

Sberbank CIB analysts Tom Levinson and Iskander Lutsky noted in his review that support the ruble has not only the rise in oil prices, but the sale of major exporters of currency. “Today, the pair USD/RUB may well fall below 64, and in the coming days even more,” they write in their review.

“The mood in financial markets Monday morning elated. Investors believe that the risks of a British exit from the EU decreased, allowing them to resume shopping. Oil is rising, futures on the S&P500 grows by more than 1%,” writes in his review analyst VTB24 Stanislas mites.

Earlier, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that a British exit from the EU could hit Russian stock market and the ruble and lead to the collapse of the Russian economy by 1% “It will be a panic”, — said Gref about the consequences of Brexit for Russia in an interview with Blomberg TV at the St. Petersburg international economic forum (SPIEF). According to him, if next week the UK will make a decision about leaving the EU, it would undermine Russia’s recovery from the recession and strike at the foreign exchange and stock market.