Russia will modernize the army in order to improve their ability to conduct a “hybrid war”, and for a full-fledged war, said “the Forecast for security 2018: potential risks and threats” prepared by the Canadian security intelligence service (document published on the website of the service).
“We should distinguish two trends. First — Russia is modernizing its army, not primarily in order to improve their ability to pursue a hybrid war. It is modernizing conventional military capabilities on a large scale and mobilized for war. The second trend is that within the framework of important topics that generate international tensions, [Russian] regime does not change its policy, but strengthens it”, — stated in the text.
According to the authors of the report, “Western estimates, according to which Russia may come to economic collapse and prone to disastrous internal discontent, exaggerated”. “Russia adapts to an adverse environment; its economy deliberately focus on security and not on economic freedom. Power in Russia is steadily concentrated at the national level in an attempt to overcome the dysfunction of the system. The current mode it is a holistic, long-term and United”, — emphasized in canadian service.
“Russia sees itself as surrounded by instability and chaos, and is also involved in a “clash of civilizations, say the authors of the report. — She [Russia] believes that the reason Western malice and incompetence.”
The document also notes that Russia “is constrained by poor economic indicators, but evidence that this prevents the consolidation of absolute power of President Vladimir Putin or of the program of modernization of the army, no.
The direction of Russian foreign policy and policy of safety, “is likely to remain consistent,” says canadian. This includes, in her opinion, “the number of long-term disagreements with NATO (even if some of them are settled with continental Europe); attempts to block and avoid the collapse of the regimes in the former Soviet territories, the middle East and North Africa, which could lead to a higher voltage with some States — for example, the USA and Turkey; and the development of relations with China.”
Russia’s relations with the West “seem ambivalent”, according to the authors, adding that a “strong lobby” — in particular in continental Europe — seeks to stabilize the relationship of the parties. Moscow, the report said, “also expresses the belief in the return to some form of “normality” in relations between Russia and Europe. “Thus, within a few years the EU sanctions can be lifted, and the dialogue at the new level continued, while the parties attempt to overcome the Ukrainian crisis,” the authors conclude.