If the US presidential election in 2016 will win Donald trump, over the next four years, the number of jobs will decline by about 3.5 million, and the unemployment rate will increase from the current 5% to 7%, analysts warn Moody’s.
In a report published by the international rating Agency said that the implementation of the previously announced head of the Republican contender for the US presidency proposals will plunge the economy into a prolonged recession.
The main negative factors Moody’s experts attributed the contraction in international trade, immigration and foreign direct investment in the US economy as a result of the isolation of the country. In their view, such an approach would reduce tax revenues, increase the budget deficit and accelerate the growth of the national debt.
In the report Moody’s underlines that the trump tax benefits the greatest benefit will be able to extract the most highly paid segments of the population, while the middle class will suffer from job loss. In addition, the incomes of the middle class will be affected by the increased inflation, and their savings will suffer from the falling prices of shares and real estate.
“The loss of wealth caused by falling stock prices and home values, will be felt by all households,” reads the Moody’s forecast.
At the same time, analysts recognize that their prediction may be inaccurate due to a lack of information about the true intentions trump, as statements by politicians during the election campaign cannot be considered as solid reform plans.
In the future, Moody’s intends to issue an analysis of the implications for the US economy from the implementation of the campaign promise of Hillary Clinton.