In 2017-2018, the Russian economy may go slightly positive growth rate, and the exchange rate rise, says the report prepared by the group of authors of the Gaidar Institute, Russian presidential Academy of national economy and public administration under the President of the Russian Federation (Ranepa), Russian foreign trade Academy (VAVT), Ministry of economic development, in partnership with the Association of innovative regions of Russia (AIRR). In the baseline scenario, the average annual price of Urals oil is projected at $40 per barrel, and the dollar in this case will cost in 2017 64,1 rubles, and in 2018 – 63,4 RUB.
The optimistic scenario assumes that by 2018, the price for Urals could grow to $60 per barrel. In this case, the ruble will be strengthened more significant pace: in 2017 the average annual exchange rate of the dollar will fall to 60.1 RUB, and by 2018 57.2 RUB.
The average value of the nominal exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar, according to experts of the Gaidar Institute, the Academy and the Etta in 2015 amounted to 74,6 RUB At the same time, the real effective ruble exchange rate fell by 8.3%. In 2016, they estimate that the average annual dollar exchange rate could reach of 67.6. (baseline scenario) or 66,3 rubles (optimistic scenario).
The economists of the Gaidar Institute, the Academy and the Etta coincide with the predictions of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia, which in June 2016, has revised the price forecast for Urals crude oil for the second half of 2016, raising it from $30 to $40 per barrel. The forecast of the Ministry of Finance — $40 per barrel this year, from the calculation of the prices laid out the budget for 2016. In may, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the ruble in the next three years will remain stable provided that the average annual price of oil will be at $40 per barrel. In June, the Finance Minister said that neither the Finance Ministry nor the Central Bank has no specific corridor for the retention of the ruble and, most importantly, to avoid excessive volatility and the equilibrium of the balance of payments. “If oil prices exceed $50 per barrel, will need additional income to withdraw to the reserves, thereby to prevent a sharp appreciation, as it was some time ago,” the official said (quoted by TASS).
Earlier, the head of the MAYOR Alexei Ulyukayev said in an interview that he expects the average annual exchange rate of the dollar in 2016 at the level of 60 rubles. “If the present conjuncture, by the end of the year the average oil price will be $43 per barrel. I think the reasonable assumption that the present conjuncture. If so, we can expect that the ruble will be somewhat stronger,” he said. Speaking at the St. Petersburg economic forum, Ulyukayev also noted that the economic situation is such that the preconditions for strengthening of the ruble is now more than the decline in its value. As a result the average for the year, the value of the dollar can be lower than incorporated in the forecast of the Ministry of 67.5 RUB.
BCS analyst Vladimir Tikhomirov said that the strengthening of the ruble in the next year or two in the case of rising oil prices is possible. “The strengthening of the ruble could be more significant if our economy has shown more significant growth. In this case, investors more actively to buy ruble assets, which would contribute to the growth rate of the Russian currency,” he said. According to experts, in 2016-2017, the GDP growth in Russia will not exceed 1,5-2%.
“With the growth of oil prices to $40 per barrel, the dollar may reach 67 rubles, if oil is above $50, the dollar may cost 61-62 RUB do Not think that even more significant when the dynamics of oil prices ruble will give significantly strengthened. It is not profitable either for the government or the exporters”, — says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai.
According to Tikhomirov, only stabilization of oil prices will not allow the ruble to strengthen much. “This requires a rise in oil prices”, — said the economist, pointing out that in addition to dynamics of the prices for raw materials on the ruble is strongly influenced by external political factors and internal demand for currency on the part of korenizatsia and population. “Only a stable, oil prices are insufficient to strengthen the ruble. Taking into account the difference in inflation and GDP dynamics in Russia and the U.S. the ruble should depreciate against the dollar every year by 5%,” — he said.
This year the ruble is a favorite among investors among the currencies of developing countries: since the beginning of the year it appreciated by 14.7%, second among the currencies of emerging markets, only the Brazilian real. On Tuesday, June 21, on the Moscow exchange, the dollar traded at 64-64,48 RUB In Jan 2016 the dollar reached a record 86 RUB