Moscow. June 22. The Russian economy has not yet shown signs of recovery from recession, moreover, may’s batch of macroeconomic data indicates a deepening recession, according to the Institute the Center of development NIU “Higher school of Economics”.
“The latest statistics say that in may 2016 bowl virtual weights, which can be weighted to the level of economic activity, after some strokes and the vibrations still bent in favor of a “worsening recession”, rather than in favor of the completion of the recession.” Despite the rise in oil prices to $45-48 $30 in the beginning of the year, the fall in domestic demand in the second quarter seems likely to be even more serious than the first. In this case, stabilization of import volumes suggests that to expect in the near future for import substitution is no longer necessary as it is not necessary to count on positive shocks from export demand”, – stated in the periodic review of the Institute “Comments on the state and business” for 7-21 June.
Экономика30 Mar 2016В HSE assessed the impact on the economy of the Russian Federation in the cost of oil at $45-50 for barrelchest read more
“Add to this serious budgetary problems, especially at the regional level, which already manifested in the reduction of the most important items of budget expenditures in real terms (in the direction of “formation” expenses in January-April decreased by 5% compared to the corresponding period in 2015), as well as the almost complete lack of foreign investment and the impossibility of borrowing in foreign markets”, – describe the current problems in Economics.
In the center of the development noted that “for the second consecutive month the decline in almost all economic activities”.
“We are all more inclined to think that, despite the increase in oil prices to about $48, the decline in GDP in 2016 may exceed 1.5%. In April-may weak signs of stabilization of economic situation in industry was replaced by a new fall in production volumes. Retail sales for the month decreased by 1.1%, showing an almost continuous decline for 17 months. With the main decrease in may was food products that may indicate deterioration in the welfare of the poorest segments of the population. Thus, for April and may, the Russian economy has deteriorated sharply, despite the increase in the price of Urals crude from $30 in January-February to $40 and $45 in April and may respectively,” describe your prediction in Economics.
The report States that “investment in the creation of new investments are among the outsiders, and this applies equally to sectors that ensure the development of physical capital (machinery, construction), and sectors that create human capital (health and education). According to calculations of the center of development, in the first quarter of 2016, investment in fixed capital in these sectors fell relative to the same period last year more than a third, except construction (minus 7%), production of vehicles (minus 12%), and health care where investment has stagnated.
“Thus, if the increased investment in the deep processing of raw materials can still say something about the transition of Russian economy to a diversified development, that is, to the transformation of commodity wealth into new assets, which includes not only physical but also human capital, not to mention the institutional capital is not necessary to speak”, – concluded in the HSE.
According to the consensus forecast of analysts compiled by Interfax at the end of may, the decline in GDP in 2016 is expected at 1.0%. It is much worse than the baseline forecast of economic development, which in the baseline scenario predicts a decline in GDP of just 0.2%.
CBR in early June, has improved its forecast for GDP growth Russia in 2016, is now expected to decline in the range of from 0.3% to 0.7% instead of the previous estimate, providing for a drop by 1.3%