The dollar soared 2 RUB on Brexit

On Friday, June 24, trading on the Moscow stock exchange opened by decrease of indexes and the fall of the ruble. By 10:01 GMT MICEX index fell by 3.28%, to 1856,3 points, RTS — on 3,32%, to 909,88 points. Dollar to the same time rose 1.6%. to 65.9 RUB Euro fell by 0.96% to 72.7 per RUB.

Leaders of falling — actions of the savings Bank (-5,8%), Rosneft (forecast to be minus 4.6%), RUSAL (-4,4%).

Russian assets are losing their value on the news of the outcome of the referendum in the UK. The victory won by the supporters of Brexit, which scored 51.9% of the votes, according to the Bi-bi-si. For withdrawal from the EU voted 17.4 million people. In turn, opponents of Brexit scored 48.1% of the votes (16,14 million). Eurosceptics have won in England and Wales. In Scotland and Northern Ireland, the majority scored the opponents of withdrawal from the European Union. Formally, the results of the referendum were consultative in nature. However, even prior to Prime Minister David Cameron has promised that in case of a victory of supporters of Brexit, he will immediately begin negotiations for Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

A barrel of oil to 10.00 fell by 5.4% to $48.4 per. The cost of a barrel of Brent began to decline sharply after the first official results from the North of England, where was fixed a victory of supporters of Brexit. After this correction occurred, however, when there is evidence that opponents of Britain’s membership in the EU has been successful in large industrial cities in Central England, the decline has accelerated and the cost of a barrel fell below $ 49.

In the OTC Forex platforms and on the Chicago stock exchange on the high dollar exchange rate has reached 67 rubles, but by 6:30 it’s rate dropped to 65,24 RUB on the Eve of Thursday, June 23, the dollar traded on the Moscow exchange on 63,84 RUB, down for the day more than on the ruble.

“This morning the whole world woke up to a completely new reality: what yesterday seemed crazy, today was a reality that traders IK “Aton” in his morning review. The markets around the world were dealt a severe blow in recent times”.

The demand for risky assets, including securities and currency in emerging markets and commodities went into a nosedive, with particularly negative for Russia, says analyst at FG BCS mark Bradford. He predicts that during the day, Russian stocks may fall 5-7%, and the dollar increase to 69-70 RUB.

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The outcome of the referendum will not affect Russian assets directly, but affect the relation of investors to risk, wrote on the eve of Sberbank CIB analysts Tom Levinson and Iskander Lutsky. The results of the vote in the UK will have implications for the global markets, especially for risky assets, they stressed. The victory of the supporters of leaving the EU caused a significant reaction in the global markets, because the possibility was not considered in the quotes. Levinson and Lutsk predicted that emerging market currencies will weaken seriously, the hardest hit currencies of countries in EMEA. “In this case, the dollar against the ruble in the coming days may test the level of 66 (depending on consequences)”, — they wrote.

Interviewed on the eve of the top managers of banks and investment companies to Brexit is not believed, but still was preparing for his attack. “In recent weeks we have reduced the exposure [the potential risk] for the risky assets, primarily stocks American and European companies”, — said the Deputy Chairman of the Board of FG “BKS” retail business Stanislav Novikov. “We now hold the minimal number of open positions,” confirmed another senior Manager of the Russian investment company. The company wants to minimize the risks during the referendum and after it, the main one is the change in the value of assets which “may be unpredictable”, says the source .

Earlier, the head of Sberbank German Gref in an interview with Bloomberg said that a British exit from the EU could hit Russian stock market and ruble. “It will be a panic,” he said. Gref feared that Brexit may lead to reduction of Russia’s GDP by 1%, shares of Russian companies may fall in price by 5-10%.

Data coming from Britain, had a significant effect on the global stock exchanges and the currency markets. So, the pound collapsed to its lowest level in thirty years. The British currency to the dollar at the minimum has fallen by more than 11%. The Euro fell against the U.S. currency more than 3.7%.

Asian indices started to decline on news the advantage of supporters of Brexit. Japan’s NIKKEI 225 lost of 3.05%, Hong Kong Hang Seng – 3.33%, the SSE Comp of 1.21%.

According to the forecast of financial analysts, the European platform at the opening will lose 6-7,5%, writes Reuters. We are talking about the British FTSE 100 index, German DAX and French CAC.