Analysts have called the main negative effect of Brexit for the Russian economy

Analysts have called the main negative effect of Brexit for the Russian economy


Moscow. June 24. For the Russian economy the main negative consequence of Brexit may be the reduction of raw materials prices in the backdrop of withdrawal of investors from risky assets, said a senior analyst of Corporation “URALSIB” Olga Sterol in an interview.

“It is not very clear how to react to the British economy is on Brexit, the consequences for the EU economy. Now there are fears that everything will fall apart like a house of cards. So they fled to quality,” she said.

In addition, Europe is a major consumer of Russian gas, so the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation in the region is likely to have a negative impact on the Russian economy, the expert said. “Can fall not only prices, but the volumes of exported Russian gas,” he added Sterols.

“In addition to the primary emotional reaction and subsequent reduction in demand for risk amid rising uncertainty regarding future developments in the UK, we do not see significant prospects for the weakening of the ruble,” write the review analysts of ROSBANK.

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According to them, the gradual achievement of balance between supply and demand on the oil market and return the economy to a growth trajectory will need to keep the Russian currency from falling in the medium term.

According to analysts of ROSBANK, in the fourth quarter of 2016, the exchange rate will be 65 rubles.

“The consequences of the referendum are in the political arena, and there are still more questions than during the campaign. Key among them is how the UK Parliament will take into account the distribution of preferences among the different regions: Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain part of the EU by a qualified majority of votes. In the case of ignoring of their opinions may be inevitable referendums on their independence. Formally, the referendum is Advisory in nature, and the law within 6 weeks its results can be subjected to legal examination. But now it becomes obvious challenge to the position of Prime Minister David Cameron as leader of the conservative majority, the process for re-election which may take several months”, – stated in the review of ROSBANK.

Today it became known that the British according to the results of the referendum called for the country’s withdrawal from the European Union: according to official data, over Brexit vote 51.9% of voters with a turnout of over 72%.