The Russian ruble looks attractive on the background of the decision residents of the UK to leave the EU, both in the short and in the long run, wrote an email to Bloomberg chief strategist for emerging markets at one of Sweden’s largest banks SEB AB Per Hammarlund. “The ruble looks good even in the longer term — 6-12 months, as oil should not be harmed by Brexit” — the expert believes. He also believes that in the short term attractive to investors look Turkish Lira and South African Rand.
On Friday it became known that on last June 23, the referendum 51.9% of people in the UK voted for the country’s withdrawal from the European Union. This triggered a collapse of world stock markets and most currencies. A record decline in the dollar was the British pound, which for the first time in 30 years has fallen below a mark of $1,35. In the OTC Forex platforms and on the Chicago stock exchange dollar to ruble dropped to 67 rubles, but later rose to 65.5 rubles At the auction of the Moscow exchange the dollar reached 67,57 RUB, however, after 14:00 Moscow time the ruble began to strengthen: at the close $1 was worth 65,26 RUB.
One of the most stable assets during Brexit was the Russian ruble, writing in the review of Sberbank CIB analysts Tom Levinson and Iskander Lutsky. They note that the support of the Russian currency has the stability of oil prices in the second half of the day on Friday published data showing that the number of active rigs in the U.S. dropped again.
Monday at the auction of the Moscow exchange, the ruble is rising against the Euro and the dollar. By 12:00 Moscow time the dollar fell by 31 kopecks to RUB 64,94, the Euro fell to 78 kopecks to RUB 71,68 Cost of barrel Brent has grown on 1,32%, to $49,05. The dollar continues to strengthen against most currencies of emerging markets: for example, South African Rand, the dollar rose by 0.56% against the Turkish Lira an increase of 0.26%. The leaders of the fall of the Hungarian Forint, the dollar has lost 0,69% and the Czech Koruna weakened against the dollar by 0.66%.
Per Hammarlund believes that “European leaders will calm markets, saying that the process of Britain’s withdrawal should take place as soon as possible to reduce the uncertainty.” “I think that will be the return of risk appetite in emerging markets, at least in the short term”, — quotes the words of strategist to Bloomberg.
As previously mentioned , this year the ruble is a favorite among investors among the currencies of developing countries: since the beginning of the year it appreciated by 14.7%, second among emerging-market currencies, only the Brazilian real. Hedge funds on the American stock exchange for the week (13 to 19 June) raised the stakes on the strengthening of the ruble by almost 50%, to a maximum of three years. Hedge funds and other speculative investors in the US are looking at the ruble with the greatest optimism since the beginning of 2013, according to the Commission futures trading USA (CFTC). The net long position of speculators (the difference between the number of long and short positions in futures on the exchange rate) for the week from 8th to 14th of June has increased by almost 50%, to 6227 contracts (compared to 4178 a week earlier).