JP Morgan predicted the timing of the referendum in Scotland


American Bank JP Morgan predicts that Scotland will hold a referendum on independence and will introduce the national currency by 2019, reports The Daily Telegraph citing a JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr.

According to the forecast Barra, the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, elected after the resignation of David Cameron, can activate article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty this year, and in 2019 after talks with Brussels, the UK can leave the EU. Some time before this, Scotland will hold a referendum on secession from the UK, and after the vote, will create its own currency, which will replace in its territory, the pound sterling, the analyst believes.

On last June 23 referendum the majority of Scots (62%) opposed the UK out of the EU. But at the end of processing of all ballots across the UK were won by the supporters of the country’s withdrawal from the EU (Brexit), who received 51.9% of the votes. After that, the head of the European Council Donald Tusk, European Parliament President Martin Schulz, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Prime Minister of the Netherlands mark Rutte (the Netherlands presiding now in EU) in a joint statement urged the UK authorities as soon as possible to start the implementation of the decision to withdraw from the EU, the Leader of the house of Commons of the British Parliament Chris Grayling earlier in a Financial Times interview, said it expects completion of the process of withdrawal from the EU by the end of 2019.

In turn, the first Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon after summing up the referendum said the possibility of a new referendum on Scottish independence from the UK. Sturgeon, who promised to do everything to Scotland remained in the EU, on Wednesday met with Jean-Claude Juncker.

The previous referendum in Scotland was held in September 2014, and then the opponents of separation from great Britain scored 55,3%.