The return of tomatoes: what change cancel anti-sanctions

Urgent orders

President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to start the process of normalizing trade and economic ties with Turkey, said the day the Kremlin website. This happened after a 40-minute conversation with Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who on Tuesday brought Russia’s apology for downed 24, 2015 bomber su-24.

The conflict between Russia and Turkey has led to economic sanctions against Turkish companies and citizens, and ban the sale of permits to Turkish resorts. The ban on Charter flights will be lifted, said Wednesday Putin: “the President of Turkey has assured me that the Turkish government will do everything that depends on them, to ensure the safety of our citizens on the territory of the Turkish Republic.”

The process of lifting the sanctions will begin the next day: orders for Turkey will be given June 30 at the government meeting, said Prime Minister’s press Secretary Dmitry Medvedev Natalia Timakova. Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich (in charge including transport) after meeting Vladimir Putin told reporters that regulatory decisions [about lifting the ban on Charter flights and selling tickets] “up on the orders of the President” (quoted by “Interfax”). “It is now a question of the airlines when they will be able to deploy the relevant work”, — said Dvorkovich. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak, who oversees the construction industry, added that the government will take the necessary steps to resume relations with Turkish companies for one to two weeks.

Russia has not imposed a complete ban on air links with Turkey. The President’s decree on economic measures against Turkey provided for a ban only Charter flights, as well as the recommendation to refrain from selling package tours, and the foreign Ministry advised Russians not to visit the country. No proverok Turkish airports, as in the case of Egypt, decision on vozobnovlenie Charter communications does not require, explained the government official.

The presidential decree does not mean the automatic opening of Charter flights to Turkey, said the President of the Association of air transport operators and the former official of Ministry of transport Vladimir Tasun: “It is a signal that the political reasons for the ban no. But there are other circumstances that affect the organization of flight operations, explains it: including the terrorist threat. Before to issue the corresponding resolution, the government must establish that nothing prevents the resumption of flights. Rostransnadzor and Rosaviation will check the major airports (Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya and Izmir), the conclusion of “on the line” should give FSB, lists Tasun.

Representatives of the Ministry of transport, Rosaviation and rostransnadzora declined to comment. A source close to one of the Federal agencies said that while the particular security requirements at the airports of Turkey is not worked out.

The Federal tourism Agency on Wednesday released an official statement in which he reminded the operators that before the release of the official order for removal of the restrictive measures continues to operate under a recommendation to suspend sales of tours to Turkey and Charter flights. “Also, Rosturizm recalls that when planning a trip to Turkey need to take into account the high level of terrorist threat in the country”, — underlined in the message.

The terrorist threat

Since last summer throughout Turkey happened 55 attacks for the previous year and a half since the beginning of 2014 to mid-2015 — just two). The vast majority of attacks carried out by militants of the Kurdistan workers party (PKK). Mostly militants-the Kurds are attacking police and military installations. More than 10 terrorist attacks committed by the terrorists of the “Islamic state”. Several terrorist attacks on account of “freedom Hawks of Kurdistan” — a breakaway from the PKK in 2004 radical groups.

On the eve of Vladimir Putin’s statement about the beginning of normalization of economic relations with Turkey at the Ataturk airport in Istanbul two explosions. According to Turkish authorities, 41 people died and 239 were injured. The Prime Minister of Turkey Binali Yildirim said that the attack involved three suicide bombers, authorities suspect that the attack is the group “Islamic state” (banned in Russia).

“The safety of our citizens remains a priority, but what kind of guarantee can be given in this case, it will become clear in the near future, when there will be contacts between diplomats and government agencies responsible for tourism in the two countries,” — said the representative of the Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets.

To fly tomorrow

At the time of the imposition of sanctions, Turkey was one of the most popular destinations of outbound tourism: according to Rostourism, in 2015, it was visited by 3.5 million Russians. More just traveled to Abkhazia (3.8 million). Statistics for the year 2016, the office does not, but, as was estimated in February chief editor of the specialized portal Dmitry Danilenko, Turkey because of the sanctions could lose about 75% of Russian tourist flow, because the majority of travelers used the services of tour operators.

“Today, a flurry of calls. Customers tomorrow ready to fly”, — said the commercial Director of a network of tourist agencies “Shop of travel” Alexander Preobrazhensky. Turkish hoteliers want to return to the Russian market, so we are ready to give discount of 25% or more of housing prices that existed before the ban, admits expert.

About a possible price reduction talking and other participants of the tourist market, in particular the General Director of “NTK Intourist” Victor topolkaraev, managing said the Agency “Interfax” that the proposals of the Turkish hotels are definitely cheaper than last year, “especially in the beginning of the program.”

The airlines is also ready to resume Charter programs. The flight programme of the airline is already generated for the entire summer season, but if desired, the customer can quickly make changes and increase the frequency of flights, said a representative of the Charter airline Air Azur. This confirms an employee of another carrier, but believes that Turkey is more of a “stand” in the winter program, which is still typeset.

However, once the tourist flow to Turkey will not be restored. “We do not consider the possibility of a quick recovery […] in the previous volumes”, says PR Director of Tez Tour Larissa Alkhanov. According to her, if the question of the renewal of the Charter will be resolved in a short time, then it is more likely to go on a Charter before the end of October. Tourist flow to Turkey will in any case significantly lower than last year, she said.

The first flights it is possible to develop for 10-14 days, and a full Charter product to offer tourists will be within a month, said earlier the press Secretary of the Russian Union of travel industry Irina Tyurina. The representative of the Federal tourism Agency estimated that, technically, restore the flow of tourists to Turkey in may for a month.

Suppliers in place

Russian retailers promise to return on the shelves of Turkish products even faster. If the embargo is cancelled, you will need not more than a week to restore the supply contracts of Turkish food, the CFO network “Magnit”, Russia’s largest by turnover and number of outlets, Khachatur Pombukhchan. “The effect of supply agreements are prohibited at the moment for import of products to Russia was suspended for an indefinite period,” says Pombuhchan. In other words, we are not talking about signing new contracts and on renewal of existing ones. About the same time of resuming the supply of said a top Manager of another network, within the top five.

Co-owner of the Kaliningrad grocery network “the Family” Oleg Ponomarev said that the existing, though frozen, contracts for the supply of Turkish products his company now, but their conclusions also do not need a lot of time. “All suppliers on the spot”, — said the businessman.

Most retailers provided the yields of the Russian manufacturers, but will be interested in the Turkish vegetables and fruits in the fall. “As usual, there is a shortage of products grown on the Russian hothouse facilities”, — says Ponomarev.

Readiness to consider the issue of resuming supplies from Turkey reported in the “Magnet” Dixy group” (the network “Dixy”, “Victoria”) and X5 Retail Group (“Pyaterochka”, “Perekrestok”, “Karusel”). “Although the formation of the assortment matrix, the priority of the company — a partnership with local (Russian) suppliers, we are open for new partnerships in categories that cannot be provided by domestic producers”, — said the representative of GK “Diksi” Catherine Kamanina.

Russian retailers are now interested in export of Turkish apricots, peaches, plums and grapes, and in autumn and winter periods will be a need for tomatoes, cucumbers and citrus fruits, said an employee of the large food chains.

According to the representative of the X5, and after the sanctions, Turkish suppliers is waiting for a more competitive market than prior to the embargo. The majority of Russian retailers found alternative suppliers of vegetables and fruits by the middle of January 2016, although to fully replace many categories, such as tomatoes and pomegranates, failed.

“Supply from new regions in some categories leads to an increase in transport costs that affect selling prices, in addition, for the category of fresh vegetables and fruit the delivery time is extremely critical. Each day of delay is a loss”, — says Director of the Union of independent networks Sergey Kuznetsov. In his opinion, the return of the Turkish products can lead to reduction in the cost of fresh produce.

Prices will not fall

The government ban on Turkish products market was regarded as a radical measure, because for many categories of Turkey for Russia has been the main supplier. For example, according to the FCS at the end of 2015, the share of Turkey accounted for almost 53% of total imports of tomatoes in Russia in money terms and 54% in volume. In 2015 from Turkey was delivered 292,8 thousand tons of tomatoes at $the 281.1 million, Turkey was the largest supplier of grapes, and every fifth Mandarin that entered the country were also grown in Turkey.

“The share of products from Turkey to the markets of certain food products prohibited for import from 1 January 2016, is noticeable, however, suppliers have time to change the geography of deliveries. […] The Bank of Russia does not expect a significant impact of restrictive measures for balance of payments and GDP dynamics, given the small share of Turkey in the Russian foreign trade turnover,” — said in the message of the Central Bank of 2 December 2015.

Three months later, the experts of the Ministry of economic development in the economic monitoring for January (published February 29, 2016), wrote that the Turkish factor the sanctions did not affect the rise in prices is: “Despite a ban on delivery of fruits and vegetables from Turkey strengthening price growth in the beginning of the year did not happen. Inhibits the growth of price decline in effective demand, and increase supply of domestic vegetables and potatoes as a result of good harvest”, — stated in the message.

Director of the Center for conjunctural research HSE George Ostapkovich, believes that the inflation contribution from the Turkish sanctions amounted to no more than 0.4%. If now allowed to supply Turkish products, the prices fall by 0.2-0.3 percentage points, he said. “The Turkish sanctions were after the main sanctions, counter-sanctions (in 2014 ). These additional sanctions are not made a high contribution, because the economy is already adapted,” recalls Ostapkovich.

Chief economist at PF Capital, Evgeny Nadorshin believes that the lifting of restrictions on Turkish imports into the Russian market will not affect the level of inflation this year. The possible impact will follow next year, when they resigned the contract, the expert believes.

With the participation of Pauline Nicholas, George and Elizabeth Peremitina Surnacheva