Triggered by the rise in world oil prices, the strengthening of the rouble prevents the Russian economy to emerge from recession, according to Bloomberg. Agency experts believe that the decision in 2014, the decision to let the ruble float freely helped to cope with the consequences of the collapse in oil prices, however, growth free formation rate became an obstacle to economic growth.
“A system that ensured the adaptation of the economy to low oil prices, yet does not generate the growth,” — says Karen Vartapetov, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings in Moscow.
In the second half of January 2016 world oil prices Brent crude fell to nearly $27 per barrel, after which the ruble has fallen sharply — the dollar gave more RUB. 83 However, after that, oil prices began to rise and the ruble went up sharply. By early July 2016, the price of a barrel of Brent has jumped by almost half, topping the mark of $50. The ruble against the dollar over the same period rose by about a third — from $0,0116 it rose to $0,0157.
However, the country’s GDP amid strengthening of the ruble only fell. For the first quarter of 2016 it, according to Rosstat, declined in annual terms by 1.2% in April, a decline of 0.7% in may and 0.8%.
Assessment of Vnesheconombank, which leads the Agency, in may 2016, the decline of Russia’s GDP with the exception of seasonal and calendar factors have accelerated to 0.4% from 0.1% in April and 0.2% in March. This negative trend was showed by almost all the main components of production value added: manufacturing (-1,1%), retail trade (-0,9%), construction (-3,5%), mining (-0.1%), transport (-0.1%) and for paid services by 0.2%).
“Data for may was much worse than most expectations. Despite the most recent optimistic statements and rising oil prices, the statistics demonstrate that the change in economic dynamics is not yet happening. Apparently, over the past two months has worsened the investment situation. The strengthening of the ruble in spring begins to worsen the financial performance of companies, and lending to businesses continues to decline,” he wrote in his report the chief economist of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach, who previously held the post of Deputy head of Ministry of economic development.
He also noted that the strengthening of the ruble reduces the incomes from the sale of previously accumulated currency.
In the course of trading Wednesday on the Moscow exchange, the ruble is reduced. The high value of the dollar 64,7375 Euro rose to 71.7 RUB.