Key risks for the ruble are the budget balance, particularly taking into account the possible postponement of the privatization of “Rosneft” and “Bashneft”, and the decline in the trade balance, says Khairullin. He also notes that the growth of budget expenditure in the pre-election period could be the trigger of inflationary expectations. All of these factors, according to VTB24 can be the reason for the further weakening of the ruble by 5-15%. As a result, the dollar may rise to RUB 73-73, while the Euro strengthened to 82 RUB.
Wednesday, July 6, at the auction of the Moscow exchange the dollar rose by 30 kopecks., to 64.6, the Euro has risen in price for 27 kopeks, to 71.5 rubles. the Cost of a barrel of Brent on Wednesday morning fell below $48.
“The negative dynamics of incomes and weak investment activity creates limitations on demand in the Russian economy, to which may be added the limitation of budget spending,” the analyst writes in his review. However, does not exclude Timur Khairullin, on the horizon a few months, possible the transition to recovery.
On the scale of the budget problem yesterday, reported by Reuters, according to which the deficit of the Federal budget in 2017 will be spent all the savings Reserve Fund and almost 800 billion rubles from the national welfare Fund. In just the next three years from the accumulated funds in the NWF will be spent on covering the budget deficit to 1.75 trillion rubles., including 883 billion rubles in 2018 and 87 bn in 2019, the Agency said, citing a document of the Ministry of Finance.
Earlier, the head of VTB group includes VTB 24, Andrei Kostin predicted that the dollar by the end of the year will cost 71 rubles. “Our analysts predict a year-end rate of 71 rubles per dollar”, — he said, speaking in April at the Congress of the Association of Russian banks, noting that the demand for currency was seriously reduced, because customers fear a devaluation of the ruble. But if the ruble will show stability, the demand can grow again, said Costin.
In June Alfa Bank analyst Alan Kaziev pointed out that the period of stability of the ruble is over and has not ruled out a rise in the us dollar to 74.9 RUB volatility will “be explosive” because during this time, speculators have accumulated a large number of positions both in one and in the other direction, he said. “Given the fact of what is now curve volatility on the ruble plus the current direction of the carry trade, we expect growth of the dollar,” said Alan Kaziev . When that happens, he said.