While politicians discuss the increase in oil production in North America global dependence on oil supplies from the Middle East continues to grow, warns the Executive Director of the International energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, the newspaper Financial Times. According to the IEA, the share of Saudi Arabia and other middle East countries now account for 34% of all deliveries to the world market, which is the highest figure since 1975. For comparison, in 1985, after the beginning of intensive exploration by Europeans of the fields in the North sea the proportion of middle East oil on the world market fell to 19%.
In late 2014, world oil prices began to fall rapidly (before the cost of a barrel of Brent for several years held above $100), however, Middle East countries not to cut production. Taking advantage of low production costs in the middle East oilfields, the Saudis and their neighbors in the region gradually pressed competitors, increasing its market share.
“Middle East countries are reminded that they are the main source of cheap oil,” — said Birol, is “the sooner the demand will increase, the more [consumers] will be [here] to import.
According to the head of the IEA, even in the case of increasing volumes of shale oil in the US, this country will remain a net importer of oil and the world market will not be able to get rid of the strong dependence on oil from the Middle East.
In this context, Birol urged politicians to think about the introduction of more stringent measures to improve the fuel efficiency.
Earlier, OPEC released a forecast of developments in world market. By calculations of experts of the cartel, world oil demand in 2016 will grow, while oil production in non-OPEC countries in 2016 will be reduced by approximately 660 thousand barrels. day (56,87 million to 56.21 million), mainly due to the reduction of production volumes in the U.S. and Canada.
Published in late 2015, the report called OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) noted that are not part of the cartel of the country in the medium term will not significantly increase oil production, as it would require a huge investment. As a result, after short-term recovery and the exhaustion of most accessible deposits mining in nevhody-OPEC countries will begin to decline and by 2040 will again fall below 60 million barrels a day. In the countries of the OPEC daily production besides 2040 will increase by about 10 million barrels (1 million barrels more than predicted in the previous version of WOO), which will lead to higher demand for oil from OPEC.