The experts of the Higher school of Economics (HSE) analyzed the state of the Russian economy in the regional context and concluded that the doldrums are all Federal districts, except the Crimean. This is stated in the latest issue of the newsletter of the HSE Comments about the state and business”.
Economists estimated for each subject of the Federation, the index of regional economic activity (REA) in the following way: they looked at the dynamics of the production of/trafficking in five sectors (industry, construction, retail and wholesale trade, paid services) in relation to the same month of the previous year, assigning a value of 100 if the index rose, and zero otherwise. Thus, if the region has seen growth in all five sectors, the index of economic activity for this region is 100%, if in four sectors — 80%, etc. composite index REA was calculated as a simple arithmetic average of regional indices.
Was that from January 2015 the composite index of REA did not rise above 50% in may 2016 was at 42%, “which clearly indicates a continuation of the recession”, the report said. The composite index was below the threshold level of 50% in all Federal districts except for the Crimean — there are “signs of recession are observed”. In most part of Federal districts — Central, northwestern, southern, Volga, Siberian and far Eastern — economic indicators correspond roughly to the average for Russia, and the situation in the North Caucasus and, especially, the Urals, much worse.
In April the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev said that the Crimea shows “impressive” rates of economic growth.
“Despite the great diversity of Russian regions by the level and potential of development for them is still the problem of the formation trajectory of growth, offsetting the negative trends prevailing in the economy as a whole”, — noted in the review of the HSE. Depression is characteristic for all sectors, except industry and wholesale trade, say the authors. Especially strong decline in the retail trade, where growth is observed only every sixth region”, — says the publication. The situation is better in the paid services sector and construction, these sectors 35-40% of the regions growth.
The share of the regions in which reduced all five sectors of the economy growing, or only one, remains very high, which allows the authors to conclude that the continuation of the recession in the Russian economy. Distribution of subjects of Federation at different levels of economic activity in may 2016 clearly does not give grounds to expect a speedy completion of the recession”, — noted in the review.
Leaders may on the level of economic activity seven regions: Belgorod and Leningrad region, Krasnodar Krai, Udmurtia, Penza oblast and the Crimea with Sevastopol. “Outsiders,” experts from the HSE, called Komi, Tuva, Karachay-Cherkessia, and Primorsky Krai.