Russian market is waiting for correction: in case of reduction in oil prices to $45 dollar may strengthen to 67.5 rubles, the analyst of Gazprombank Vladimir Kravchuk. He refers to technical studies, according to which most of the assets can fall in price. Monday, July 11, the price of oil has dropped below $46 per barrel.
Kravchuk believes that, among other things, may fall the price of Russian Eurobonds and OFZ. In these circumstances, in Gazprombank it is recommended to bet on the rise in the dollar, and to hedge risks on bonds by buying insurance against default on Russian bonds, namely five-year credit-default swaps.
The analyst notes that the Russian bond market is overbought, it can be seen at rates of return that have fallen to pre-crisis levels. Index of government bonds Moscow exchange since the beginning of the week increased from 392,43 to 393,99 points, its yield is in the range of 8.87–8,88%. Yield corporate bond index for the two days fell from 10.12 to 10.08%. Prices for Eurobonds maturing in 2042 and 2043 the years grew respectively by 0.6 and 0.5 PPT, paper traded with a yield of 4.6%.
“The price of OFZ and Eurobonds supports increased demand from investors, including foreign ones. Sooner or later they will start to fix profit, and this will put pressure on the ruble,” — said Kravchuk. He believes that the ruble temporarily rid of oil, and connects it with the season of dividend payments (exporters sell their foreign exchange earnings to pay dividends). “As soon as the dividend period is complete, this support the ruble will go, and the link between the ruble and the oil needs to recover,” — said Kravchuk.
The dollar is trading on Moscow exchange as of 63.86 RUB, EUR — RUB 70,86 American and European currency fell against the ruble by 34 and 11 kopecks. respectively (data as of 15:37). The strengthening of the ruble is supported by a growing price of oil, which rose more than 3%.
“The ruble follows the General optimistic mood of the market” — the analyst of Sberbank CIB Tom Levinson. He noted that Russian assets continue to provide protection from global risks, and this situation is reflected in the data of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for the second quarter.
About the possible strengthening of the ruble by supporting exporters had previously been warned at Sberbank CIB. “In July, we expect growth in demand for the ruble due to the significant volume of tax and dividend payments, which the exporters may have to sell more foreign currency in terms when rouble liquidity is less and the payments on external debt are significantly reduced,” — said analyst of the investment Bank Iskander Lutsky. According to him, in July, the company’s oil and gas industry will pay dividends to 261 billion rubles, or $4 billion After payments, according to analysts, the dollar could rise.
“While large exporters have not paid their dividends. In addition, the dividend payments of the telecommunication companies. This money can be converted by the shareholders into the currency, and the ruble will fall,” — says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. He estimates that at an oil price of $46 per barrel, the dollar may cost 70 rubles, the Analyst notes that the weakening of the ruble may happen in the second half of August, when major dividends will have been paid already.
In case of a rollback Brent to about $45 the dollar has all chances to return into the range 67-71 RUB, predicted earlier by analysts of “VTB Capital” Maxim Korovin and Tatiana Chernyavskaya. VTB24 analyst Timur Khairullin expects that due to problems with the budget deficit and the decline in oil prices, the dollar has all chances to return to the level 73-74 rubles, and Euro to strengthen to 82 RUB.