Experts predicted the election to the Duma only three parties


The fourth one

In the state Duma are guaranteed to get only the three parties, experts of the Committee on political technologies of RASO (Russian Association of public relations), headed by Yevgeny Minchenko. Their report was compiled based on a poll of 60 analysts. They estimated the chances of the “United Russia”, LDPR and the Communist party to enter the Duma on the list as absolute.

Behind it may be “Fair Russia” almost half the respondents (45%) are not sure that the socialist-revolutionaries will overcome the 5% barrier needed to enter the lower house of Parliament. Earlier low the chances of the party Sergey Mironov compared to other Duma parties were fixed and sociologists.

From all parliamentary parties “Fair Russia” the worst basic resources, experts say. The weaknesses of the party include minor base electorate, which will have to fight with other leftist parties and former members of the party, transformed into other projects (such as Oksana Dmitriev and Dmitry Gudkov), vague ideology and the absence of strong, charismatic leaders.

First Deputy head of the Duma faction “Fair Russia” Mikhail Emelyanov believes that politicians play an old scenario: socialist-revolutionaries and in 2011 drew low ratings in the 2-3%, and the party ended up with 14%.

The leader of the ranking of the analysts “United Russia” has, according to experts, the maximum geographic distribution, the greatest financial resources, dominance in the media, the aura of “the party of Putin.” The liberal democratic party bypasses the Communist party in the “basic resources” by a charismatic leader, ideology, media presence, the study says. The advantages of the Communist party only in the presence of a stable and disciplined electorate of wide geographical representation, experts say.

The second League

Yabloko, Rodina and the pensioners Party can overcome the threshold of 3%, I think 50 to 60% of the experts. In this case, these parties will be entitled to public funding and admission to the following state Duma elections and elections in regional parliaments.

More chances to overcome the threshold of 3% among the parties of the “second League” at “Apple”, represented in most regions, it is necessary from the study. However, most it departments do not have enough resources to expand the active campaign, experts said. In their opinion, the party has a clear ideological component, but it will have to face the PARNASSUS and the Party of growth on a narrow electoral segment.

On the eve of the election campaign “the Apple” could significantly strengthen the Federal list by attracting several strong regional and Federal figures, said the analyst. In the Federal list “the Apple” has entered the ex-Chairman of RPR-PARNAS Vladimir Ryzhkov, the Deputy of the state Duma from “Fair Russia” Dmitry Gudkov, a St. Petersburg group headed by the Director Alexander Sokurov.

A quarter of respondents analysts believe that the Party of growth, headed by Commissioner of the President for the protection of the rights of entrepreneurs Boris Titov with its financial advantage and presence on television is also able to overcome the threshold of 3%.

The outsider rating — PARNAS party. She had the sympathy of the Internet audience, thanks to cooperation with opposition activist Alexei Navalny, but he eventually quarreled with the party, says Minchenko.

Request a new player in Parliament is, but are hampered by the fact that the elections involved a lot of parties, which a little differ from each other for political weight, said political analyst Konstantin Kalachev. In his opinion, the “Apple” has a small chance to “crawl” the 5 percent barrier, since liberal-minded citizens have a desire to Express their position, and this party is perceived as “less evil.” Capacity is also the party of pensioners, which is greater than “homeland” meets public demand — people care about the issues of pension savings and raising the retirement age, says the analyst.