Rebellion with the consequences: how Erdogan will respond to a coup attempt

Cleansing and strengthening power

One of the first promises that the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan made, going to communicate in on Saturday night, was the promise to purge the army. Around 4:00 local time (coincides with Moscow), a plane with Erdogan landed in Istanbul, where the Turkish President was greeted by crowds of supporters. Speaking to them, Erdogan said that the incident was “a betrayal”, and he will use the failed coup as an opportunity to purge the army.

“Of course, Erdogan is going to tighten the screws, as there was a coup attempt, which was attended by many people, but which are not supported by the people that can serve for Erdogan an excuse for tough action” — said the expert of the Moscow Carnegie Center Alexei Malashenko. In favor of this development and says erdoğan’s character — he is charismatic, accustomed to the fact that in order to maintain the charisma needed to take decisive action specifies Malashenko.

During his stay in power first as Prime Minister (since 2003) and then President (2014) Erdogan has shown himself as a supporter of tough action. In 2013, Istanbul was brutally dispersed the mass anti-government protests, eight people were killed, and the government abandoned the plan of reconstruction of the Park Gezi. One of the most famous trials of the reign of Erdogan was a case of attempting a coup d’etat a secret ultra-nationalist organization “Ergenekon”. In 2013, 16 people, including the former head of the General staff of the Turkish army of Ilker Basbug, received a life sentence for the coup attempt in 2003. Various terms have been military leaders, politicians, teachers and journalists.

When the rebellion is finally suppressed, Erdogan will have an opportunity to “crackdown” agrees expert, lecturer, MGIMO Vladimir Hvatkov. The President of Turkey will be able to implement the long-planned strengthening of the presidential form of government, says Avakov.

According to the Constitution, increased powers in Turkey has a Prime Minister. However, Erdogan, according to the rules of his party could not go for a fourth Premiership in 2014 organized the first-ever direct presidential elections are won. Since then, he has repeatedly talked about the need for constitutional reform, which recorded the redistribution of powers in favor of the President, which has now happened de facto. However, due to various circumstances to undertake the necessary amendments of the party of justice and development Erdogan failed.

It is unlikely that what happened in Turkey events will impact on its foreign policy, but certainly will affect the internal, I’m sure Irina Zvyagelskaya, chief research fellow, Center for Arab studies Institute of Oriental studies. Under attack Erdogan can get not only military, but also other groups whom he considers disloyal, she points out.

Why the failure of the rebellion

Military coups in modern Turkish history took place four times. A victim of the latter, in 1997, became allies of Erdogan’s party. Then the post of Prime Minister was occupied by the founder of the Islamist welfare Party Necmettin Erbakan, whose military was forced to sign a Memorandum guaranteeing the observance of the principles of the founder of the state Mustafa Kemal atatürk, in particular, the secular nature of the state, reminds TASS. The Prime Minister was not ousted and the Parliament dissolved soon, however, Erbakan resigned his post, and the welfare Party was dissolved. Erdogan then for the propaganda of views that incite ethnic hatred, was sentenced to 4 months imprisonment. In 2001, on the basis of the welfare Party was formed the Party of justice and development party of Erdogan.

Usually military coups in Turkey, there are two reasons: the desire of the military to remove from power the Islamists and the desire of the West and the US to strengthen its influence in Turkey, says Avakov. Which of these factors played now it is not clear, although it is obvious that the current government Islamize the country, and the military dissatisfied with this, he points out.

The cause of the failure of the rebellion of Avakov considers insufficient support for a coup among the leadership of the Turkish armed forces and unpopular measures, such as strikes from the air. The rebels did not the chief, which is usually their predecessors did — not sent immediately to jail the Prime Minister and the President, and gave them time to rally their supporters, and are unable to enforce curfew to prevent the supporters of Erdogan.

The failure of the coup, according to Avakova, puts an end to the possibility of further coups in Turkey.

The coup was done quite professionally, based on the available information, but the rebels summed up the lack of a leader who would act at the right moment and brought to supporters on the street calls another possible reason for Alexei Malashenko.