The dilemma for the United States and Europe
Military coup attempt in Turkey have a negative impact on Ankara’s relations with Western countries and will have a big impact on the situation in Syria, write the Financial Times (FT) and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
Writes the FT, the administration of US President Barack Obama has long disappointed with the policies of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but Washington is heavily dependent on Turkey. It is a key US ally in the middle East, emphasizes the expert of the Center for Strategic and International studies, Bulent Aliriza. Cooperation with Ankara needed to combat “Islamic state” (banned in Russia), especially since last year, when Turkey allowed the US to use its base in Incirlik for air strikes on is positions in Iraq and Syria. In addition, Ankara is important for the solution of migration problems in Europe, which in recent years has faced unprecedented flow of migrants from Asia.
The attempted coup will be “a serious test” for the US and its European NATO partners, says expert at the Center for a New American security Nick Heras: “they have to understand if they want to prevent the overthrow ambiguous in its policy, but the democratically elected President”.
Experts interviewed by the WSJ, the fear that the situation in Turkey could undermine any attempt by Moscow and Washington in the fight against ISIS. “The coup means that any offer of [U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry] made during his visit to Moscow will be even harder to accomplish in practice. We don’t know who is now in Turkey is responsible for everything,” says Middle East expert Andrew Tabler.
A coup could trigger the US government to enact laws on the prevention of the cooperation of the American army with the countries that experienced the overthrow of democratically elected governments, suggests the Director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute for Near East policy Soner Cagaptay. But he stressed that the importance of Turkey for U.S. operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria may complicate the termination of cooperation with Ankara. “I can’t imagine that Washington retreated and gave ISIS the advantage in the fight in Syria,” he said.
At the same time Cagaptay recalled that during the two previous coups in Turkey in 1960 and 1980, the military immediately began a process of normalization of relations with Washington: “the First thing they did after the coup — not only announced full loyalty to NATO, but increased cooperation with the United States.” One of the first statements by the Turkish military, which this time brought out the tanks and began to seize the media, was the promise to uphold all international agreements.
Despite the important geopolitical status of Turkey — NATO Outpost in General and the USA in particular — and the external hardness and authoritarian style of government of Erdogan, Turkey has proved to be extremely fragile and vulnerable affected by the economic, political and social tensions, says Spanish political scientist josé Ignacio Torreblanca in his column in the newspaper El Pais. In his opinion, Erdogan, who came “from the Arab spring” leader of the Muslim world, adhering to the idea of construction of “neo-Ottoman” order, now found themselves isolated, both domestically and on the world stage.
“At the proclaimed foreign policy principle of “no problems with neighbors,” under Erdogan, there has been dynamic confrontation with all allies, including key — Russia, Iran and Israel. Only recently he tried to change course. His goal is the overthrow of Assad in Syria — not only failed, as the Syrian dictator is still in power, but also created deep internal contradictions. Compounded by the hostility of the Kurds and the Iranians. In addition, Erdogan has made Turkey a focus of the militants of the “Islamic state,” says Torreblanca.
“Erdogan had disagreements with the US regarding the Kurds and Syria, with the EU on the issue of mass migration and refugees, with the Arab neighbors and Israel against the jihadists, Russia — about the violation of boundaries, — the journalist writes the Guardian Simon Tisdall. — His actions concerning the matters of human rights and freedom of the media, faced with growing criticism in the West. Though he may be troubled, but the sudden appearance nobody elected the military junta in the country, which is a key strategic ally and NATO member, will be never-ending worse. Ahead of the period of the sympathy and support of the Turkish President, which was not before. In the end, he is a Democrat, though not perfect.”
Tisdall fears that Erdogan is using the rebellion as the only reason for the purges in the army, but also in its undeclared war” against kurów in South-East. The journalist believes .he could “pounce” on Pro-Kurdish and other opposition politicians to strengthen their power by introducing controversial amendments to the Constitution and to strengthen the persecution of the independent media, journalists and scientists.
The army could not stand
According to the WSJ, the coup attempt in Turkey is the culmination of years of dissatisfaction with the military chiefs with the President’s policies. The army has always been unhappy with his policy of Islamization of the country — many generals and officers were educated in the secular traditions of Turkey, the newspaper added.
But the coup attempt stunned many political analysts who watched during the decade, Erdogan has tightened control over the armed forces, in particular, through the appointment on the leading positions of loyal people, notes the WSJ.
“Ironically, this week, Erdogan signed a bill that grants the military immunity from prosecution if they participate in operations to ensure internal security. — continues The Guardian. — The document was seen as confirmation of improved relations between the government and the army, and he played a key role in operations in the Kurdish territories,
According to Guardian, Turkish experts have long warned that a trigger for the intensification of the military may be the Kurdish issue, although the probability of a coup few expected. “The military could start to act as if the struggle between the Kurdistan workers’ party and Turkish armed forces is out of control, if mass violence in Western cities led to insecurity and a serious weakening of the economy and if the state has strengthened authoritarianism,” said genul Tol.
The probability of setting
British Independent recounts have appeared in social networks a theory that the coup attempt might have been staged to give the opportunity to clear the army of opponents and increase their power. The newspaper reminds that, according to Turkish television since the start of the attempted coup by 18:00 on Saturday in Turkey removed from office more than 2.7 thousand employees of judicial institutions, five Turkish generals and colonels 28. According to the Prime Minister of Turkey, Binali Yildirim, arrested at least 2.8 thousand representatives of top and middle management of Turkish armed forces.
“Perhaps we will see early elections, which he will try to guarantee yourself an incredible majority of votes. Perhaps we will see a change in the Constitution to the worst, it will leave the secular and the coming Islamist motives,” says Turkish source “told the publication Politico Ryan Heath, which the journalist cited in his Twitter account.