Consumer confidence of Russians grew up with minus 22% in the first quarter of this year to minus 17% in the second, although still below the level of the corresponding quarter of 2015 (minus 14%), found at Sberbank CIB, calculating so-called Consumer index Ivanova — it takes into account the mood of the middle class.
The share of those who believes that the economy is unstable, decreased by 3 percentage points, but still high — 83%. Sberbank CIB analysts point out that these improvements should be treated with some caution, because they can vary with the season.
The main reason for concern, “Ivanov” is inflation, but it was identified by 58% compared to 62% in the previous quarter. The level of concern about unemployment has declined from 60% in the first quarter to 54%. The proportion of respondents fear losing their jobs, fell from 43 to 39%. In General, the level of unemployment among the “Ivanov” fell to 11.3%, 0.8 percentage points compared with the first quarter.
A quarter of respondents reported that they this year have indexed wages (in the first quarter mentioned that only one fifth of respondents). The average indexation, according to research by Sberbank CIB, was 6.4%.
Amid these improvements to become more positive and the respondents ‘ assessments of prospects for their employers. 22% “Ivanov” expect that within the next year, the company in which they are employed, will grow (in the first quarter — 19%). The pessimists on this question was less than 21% against 23% in the previous survey. As a result, the index of business prospects went from negative to positive and reached the level of 0.9%.
Improvement of the Ivanov index is consistent with previously published data of the market research Center of higher school of Economics, which scores of consumers improved slightly, though pessimists still more. In the second quarter of 7% of respondents reported an improvement in their financial situation over the past year, and the deterioration noted by 41% of respondents (in the previous quarter was 6 and 53%, respectively). The consumer confidence index published by Rosstat, in the second quarter of this year increased by 4 percentage points to 26%, for the first time after four quarters of continuous decline.
The proportion of respondents Sberbank CIB, who have no savings, despite all the improvements included in “Ivanov index” indicators, reached 43%, which corresponds to an increase by 2 percentage points While the share of savings dropped to 6.7% from 7% in the first quarter. Thus, the backlog of salaries from inflation indicators continue to signal a gradual decumulation of savings (according to Ivanov, the food inflation rate was in June, 15% against the official target of 6.2%).
The proportion of consumers who called the price the most important factor when choosing a product in the store, peaked in the history of the index — 77%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared with the previous quarter. Buyers continued to actively hunt for prices: 23% of the respondents indicated that although they purchase the most products in one store, but visit and some are exclusively in search of discounts. Last year, there were 16%. The proportion of those who come into the stores just for the sake of promotions, rose to 47% against 43% in the first quarter of 2016.
Most attractive in this regard was the network of “Dixie”. The number of visitors who are looking for discounts in its stores rose by 33%; for comparison, in the “roundabout” and “Tape” — on 8%. And in the “Magnet” bargain hunters was even 5% less.
This may explain the fact that the number of unique visitors in networks “Dixie” and “OK” has increased in “Pyaterochka” and “Tape” has remained at approximately the same level, but in “Magnet”, on the contrary, decreased.
In General, ivanovy began to go in a large network, according to the study authors. If in the first quarter, the number of unique visitors was down in the second, showed an increase of 4%.