The bomb, a machete, ax: what would it mean for Merkel surge of violence in Germany

Germany has joined the list of countries in which there have been terrorist acts committed by the Islamic state (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). July 25, ISIS has claimed responsibility for the detonation of a suicide bomber at the restaurant in the Bavarian Aschaffenburg, and informed by a 17-year-old Afghan, July 18 wounding with a knife and an axe four train passengers travelling from Treuchtlingen Bavaria in würzburg.

The threat remains high

During the last seven days in Bavaria (the largest region in Germany, located in the South of the country) there have been four attacks involving migrants. Following the attack on the train, July 22, several people, including 18-year-old German citizen of Iranian origin, opened fire on people in Munich, killed ten people). July 24, 21-year-old Syrian was hacked with a machete pregnant woman at the bus station in Reutlingen. And on the same day his 27-year-old compatriot blew himself up in restaurant in Ansbach (no one except him should not perish, 12 people were injured).

Two cases of the four recognized terrorist attacks. In other cases, authorities have cited among the reasons for psychological problems of the attackers or domestic soil.

On 25 July, the Agency Amaq, through which the rebels broadcast their statements, said that the attack in the restaurant (the Islamists call it a “transaction”) was made in response to the calls of the coalition to fight against ISIS. At the same time, the police found in the phone blew himself up refugee a videotaped oath of allegiance to the “Islamic state”. The attack in Ansbach July 24 — the first with participation of the suicide bomber in Germany.

After the attacks in Munich and Ansbach, the official representative of the Ministry of interior of Germany Tobias plate said that the threat of further such attacks remains high, reported Reuters.

“Until recently, the terror passed Germany by. Now the reality is that anyone who happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, can become a victim. This causes a huge uncertainty”, — quotes The Wall Street Journal member of the center-left Social democratic progressive party, an expert on the internal politics of Burkhard Surpluses. According to him, “now the politicians must do everything possible to ensure maximum safety.”

Last week — an unprecedented number of attacks originating from Asia to residents of Germany, but the attacks occurred periodically since last year. In August 2015, ISIS released a video message with threats against Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel. In September, the native of Iraq, previously serving time for belonging to a terrorist organization, was shot dead by police after stabbing their colleague in Berlin.

June 2, 2016, the security forces have prevented a terrorist attack in the centre of düsseldorf: was arrested three migrants from Syria. Presumably, they wanted to blow themselves up in the old town.

The problem of “open doors”

Participated in two attacks, the Syrians came to Germany less than two years ago, the Afghan this year.

In the midst of a migration crisis, Merkel led an active policy of accepting refugees from war-torn Syria. In 2015 Germany has become a leader in the European Union in the number of arrivals in a country of migrants: according to the authorities, over the past 20 months, arrived in the country more than 1.1 million people. In February, the government reported that the influx of migrants to Germany by 2020 may reach 3.6 million, or an average of 0.5 million people per year.

According to the Institute of world Economics in Kiel, who led the radio station Deutsche Welle, in 2015, the migrants had spent at least €10 billion, taking into account all the costs of a three-level budget system: the Federal budget, the budget of the länder and the municipalities. The Institute expects that in 2016, Germany will spend €25 billion annually (if the flow is 360 thousand refugees per year) to €55 billion (if the flow will be over a million).

Migration policy Merkel threatened to split her Christian democratic Union (CDU): many of its members considered it unreasonable to accept migrants in such amounts and required to limit their influx. The same opinion of the Bavarian Christian social Union, which is included with the CDU in one political unit. But the government of Bavaria has repeatedly stated that their possibilities of reception of new migrants who cross the southern border of Germany, exhausted.

“Germany pays for it [the policy of “open doors”] high price” — quoted Wall Street Journal leader of the conservative eurosceptic “Alternative for Germany” Frauke Petry.

At the end of last year, Merkel has promised to seriously reduce the influx of migrants. Speaking at a conference of the CDU in December 2015, she said that at the same time will not abandon its declared course on the reception of refugees and will not impose an upper limit on the migration flow, but will be more determined to refuse entry to migrants who do not qualify.

The prospects of the election

The Merkel-led CDU was defeated in the last election (in March) in the parliaments of the two Federal States Baden — württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate — and was victorious in the elections to the Parliament of Saxony-Anhalt.

In the elections to the Parliament of Saxony-Anhalt right-wing party “Alternative for Germany” received second place. The party was held in the parliaments of Baden-württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate and will now be presented in half of the 16 Federal States of the country. In the whole country, according to surveys of voters, for the “Alternative for Germany” is ready to vote for 14-15% of the electorate, noted the WSJ.

The local paper described the elections revealing. Wrote the WSJ, the outcome of the election testified to the rejection of the migration policy of the Chancellor in relation to migrants.

According to the survey, conducted in July by the Pew Research among residents of ten European countries, 61% of German respondents said that the presence of refugees in the country increases the risk of terrorist attacks. 35% believe that crime in the country the refugees are to blame more than other social groups.

As the head of the Department of war studies king’s College London, an expert of the international discussion club “Valdai” Anatol Lieven, the recent events in Germany will make immigration policy Merkel is even more unpopular. In his opinion, in the near future, Germany may go the way of France, where the voter has become much more right. Moreover, the CDU can change the rhetoric on the right. “Despite the fact that the first attack [in the Mall], most likely, was not a terrorist, and the second was a terrorist attack, people perceive both attacks as terrorist attacks and will respond appropriately,” concludes Lieven.

Right shift

One consequence of strengthening of terrorist activity in Europe is likely to be the growing popularity of nationalist and right-wing parties exploiting anti-immigration rhetoric. The growing popularity of such parties is observed throughout Europe. In may the presidential election in Austria, the candidate of the right party of freedom Norbert Hofer lost to his opponent Alexander van der Bellano only 0.2% of votes (later the constitutional court overturned the results of the election and re-election with the same candidates will be held in October). In the Netherlands, the nationalist freedom Party, headed by right-wing politician Geert Wilders, according to opinion polls, has good chances to win the parliamentary elections in March 2017. In France, according to a may survey by Ipsos, leader of the far-right “National front” marine Le pen in the presidential elections in 2017 would support almost a third of voters (28%). While Le Pen after the terrorist attacks in nice openly criticizing Francois Hollande, saying that the authorities “did absolutely nothing” to counter extremism.

With the participation of George Peremitina