In the baseline scenario of Gazprombank, the discrepancy between the ruble and the price of oil is temporary and will last until about mid-August. When oil prices in the $45-50 per barrel in the second half of this year, the national currency should gradually return to the values of 70-75 rubles per dollar, says the analyst of Gazprombank Dmitry Dolgin in his review. The strengthening of the ruble is possible only in case of increase in oil prices or supply of portfolio investment, a positive trend which could lead to the strengthening of the national currency to 50-55 rubles to the dollar.
On 26 July, the dollar rate at the Moscow exchange for the first time in more than a month rose above 66 RUB To the maximum of its cost reached $ 66,105 RUB 69 kopecks above yesterday’s closing level. In the previous times the price 66 RUB the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange was the 24 June 2016.
July 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin drew attention to the risks of excessive strengthening of the ruble. “The ruble strengthened, despite the price volatility in commodity markets, and in this regard we need to think about how and what we will do in the near future in connection with these factors,” the President said today at the meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Since the beginning of summer the usual correlation between the ruble and the price of oil has broken (the ruble rose in price, even when oil was cheaper), but after a “verbal intervention” from the Kremlin, the rate was adjusted to 63 RUB RUB to 65-66 per dollar.
According to the economist PF “Capital” Eugene Nadorshin, it is highly likely that when oil prices in the $45-50 per barrel, the dollar will cost 70 rubles. the Reason for this will be a modest balance of current account and payments on the external debt, which will create the conditions for the ruble returned to the level of 70, says the economist. “Now the strengthening of the ruble contributed to the tax period, but it ends, and we enter the period when the ruble will be subject to adverse change, especially against the background of falling oil prices”, — says Nadorshin.
According to the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lisovolik, with stable prices for oil at $45-50 per barrel, the ruble should be strengthened. Lissovolik said that the ruble was strong enough in July, but last week began the process of impairment due to the outflow of capital, which will have a further significant impact on the national currency in the second half of this year. “Moreover, the situation will depend on the fed’s decision on rate and the aggressive policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on reduction of the key rate. The Central Bank will cut interest rate by 1 p. p. to the end of the year, but this decline will not be too aggressive and in spite of the careful steps the fed rate of the national currency when the price of oil at $45-50 will be around 65-67 rubles per dollar”, — said Lissovolik.