British and European authorities expect to complete the process of a British exit from the European Union by the summer of 2019, the Financial Times writes. According to the publication of high-ranking European officials, they just now started preparing two years of negotiations, and are not going to allow direct negotiations essentially began later than the fall of 2017 or even in 2018.
Earlier, the British Minister in charge of negotiations with the EU on trade agreements, Liam Fox in an interview with the Sunday Times newspaper reported that Brexit will be held in early January 2019, and a formal two-year negotiations should start in early 2017. The head of the Ministry Brexit David Davis called estimated date of exit from the EU at the end of 2018 or beginning of 2019.
To comply with this schedule, the British government has until the end of the year to submit to Brussels the official statement on withdrawal from the EU under article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which will launch the process of negotiations. The EU requires British Prime Minister Theresa may to do it as soon as possible, fearing that “any delay only unnecessarily prolong the uncertainty.” May, in turn, said that it will do so before 2017, because the new Cabinet needs time to prepare for the negotiations.
As the FT writes, after the British served in Brussels an official statement on withdrawal from the EU, European diplomats for three to six months to develop a formal position on the talks. In addition, the negotiation process may be political obstacles: in 2017 elections to the parliaments of the Netherlands, France and Germany.
“We have not even formulated all the questions, not to mention the potential answers,” says one of the interlocutors FT. According to another source, Brussels “does not expect significant progress in 2017,” mainly in connection with the election and lack of a clear position of the UK leaving the EU. “They should decide what they want. They came from London and do not know what you want. They don’t know what their government and Parliament. They are not ready,” complained one EU diplomat involved in the negotiations.
Another official explained that the [Brussels] “for all reasons” wants to complete the process of a British exit from the EU no later than June of 2019, which scheduled elections to the European Parliament. “But it will be very, very hard. You underestimate the complexity [of this process] as long as you do not want to be tough and to break the connection,” said a third source.
The long-term nature of the negotiations may improve the chance of finding a compromise for both sides, but at the same time, strengthen the dissatisfaction with the “impatient” European politicians and supporters of Brexit, in the UK, while any delay in starting the negotiation process under article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty may lead to increased pressure on Mae’s side of Brexit supporters in Parliament, said the FT.