The rating from Shuvalov
A preliminary assessment of the government’s stake in Bashneft — $3 billion, said Wednesday, 3 August, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who oversees privatization. “Ours was a preliminary estimate of $3 billion But have to wait for the appraiser,” he said.
The government plans to the end of the year to sell of 50.08% of “Bashneft” to replenish the Federal budget. Without the sale of major assets the budget for 2015 been drawn up with a deficit of 3% of GDP or 2.4 trillion Shortfall in oil revenues in the first half of the year may require from the government more substantial sequestration costs than the previously planned 500 billion rubles, experts warn the HSE in its weekly review.
A week ago, on 25 July, “VTB the Capital” has finished on behalf of the government to collect applications for participation in the privatization of “Bashneft”. Of said Rosneft, LUKOIL and Independent oil and gas company (NOC) owned by the ex-President “Rosneft” Edward Khudainatov, and Antipinsky oil refinery (80% owned by the founder, Dmitry Mazurov, 20% in classmate of the President, well-known lawyer Nikolai Egorov). According to “Kommersant”, the application also gave the Russian direct investment Fund (RDIF), “Tatneft” and the Fund “Energy,” former energy Minister Igor Yusufov.
According to Shuvalov, VTB Capital had on Tuesday to send the Ministry an assessment of the government’s stake in Bashneft. He is not yet familiar, as is in business trip in Ekaterinburg. The Director of the Department of corporate governance Ministry of economic development Oksana Tarasenko conveyed through the press service that the report is received and next week the Ministry will submit it to the government with the analysis of the possible contenders for the asset. The press service of “VTB Capital” refused to comment.
The government first called the amount that the government wants to gain from privatization of “Bashneft”. Until now, high-ranking officials was limited to only statements about the desire to sell the asset at a premium to the market. For example, the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev in may called reasonable premium of 20-30% to market price.
However, the rating Shuvalov was below the market value of Bashneft almost 26% in Wednesday afternoon on the Moscow stock exchange of 50.08% of the company cost 252,64 billion, or $3.77 billion After the statement Shuvalov quotations for the ordinary shares fell by almost 20%, slipping to 2516,5 rubles. apiece. However, they played most of his downs, and at the end of trading the price was $ 3 thousand. RUB. per share (1.8 percent below the level on Tuesday).
In search of a fair price
Potential buyers of “Bashneft” yesterday did not comment on a preliminary assessment of the asset. Representatives of the Russian direct investment FUND and LUKOIL declined to comment, “Rosneft”, “Tatneft”, Antipinsky oil refinery, the NOC and Fund Energy did not respond to a request.
Rating Shuvalov less than the current market value of state-owned, but greater than the price that was in the beginning of the year, when the sale of the company have not yet been announced. The decision on privatization was adopted on 1 February at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The controlling stake in Bashneft cost of 179.5 billion rubles or $2.4 billion at the exchange rate on 30 January, that is 25% cheaper than the preliminary estimates of the government.
President of LUKOIL Vagit Alekperov has repeatedly said that to pay for the asset will not. In an interview in June he said that his company is ready to buy Bashneft “at a reasonable price”. “At the start of privatization in January, “Bashneft” was worth $4 billion today — more than $7 billion a growth of capitalization showed no company in the energy sector. That is on the market there is speculation,” he said. While Alekperov acknowledged that the sale of a controlling stake are entitled to award 10-15%. Other candidates have not yet commented on the rating of the asset.
The President “Bashneft” Alexander Korsik at the annual meeting in late June stated that a fair assessment of the entire company of 500 billion rubles, or $7.5 billion (or $3,76 billion for 50%).
The analyst of “Renaissance Capital” Eldar Davletshin named Shuvalov believes the estimate is conservative. “Probably, it laid the price of oil about $40 per barrel. If we take our model from $55 per barrel and a discount rate of approximately 12%, the price of the state stake in Bashneft to be $3.5 billion,” — he said. According to Davletshina, the assessment needs to consider all the circumstances of the transaction, the most important of them is the ability of the synergy assets, the difference between the cost of replacement of stocks and profit. The need to pay high dividends at the request of the Republic reduces the attractiveness of the asset for sale, but the buyer will have the opportunity to raise the profit level of the parent company and save the company “Bashneft”, the expert said.
Andrey Polishchuk from Raiffeisenbank also does not exclude that the final price may be higher due to high competition for the asset. However, the overall estimate of $3 billion he considers fair, as the company rose significantly after the announcement of privatization.
Press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov on the possible participation of the state company “Rosneft” in privatization: “with regard to the participation of state companies and state-controlled companies in the privatization, we have frequently talked about the predominant understanding that, of course, these companies cannot participate in privatisation. < … > Rosneft is a joint stock company, and there is some difficulty in evaluating. Is a Corporation that exists and operates under corporate law, a company that is traded on the market where many different shareholders. Another thing is that it is controlled by the government. That’s why I say that the overall understanding is based on non-participation of state-owned companies in the privatization process), but at the same time, the situation cannot be taken as absolutely linear and simple — there are certain nuances”.