Moscow. 4 Aug. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research (BofA-ML) recommends to prepare for the purchase of the ruble to the bottom, waiting for its recovery in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to a review of the Bank.
“Now we carefully look at the countries of the region EEMEA (Eastern Europe, middle East and Africa) in connection with the continuing decline in oil prices. In addition, the ruble in the third quarter, is under pressure of seasonal factors. Meanwhile, we expect that in IV quarter the situation will improve. In addition, according to our new estimates, the Central Bank will follow a tighter monetary policy than we predicted earlier. This implies lower inflation and increase real interest rates to four percent next year, which is a relatively high level in terms of the negative yields in the world,” says the review.
Thus, investment Bank analysts believe that the ruble will soon reach the “bottom” and then start to recover amid rising oil prices.
The forecast of cost of oil of mark Brent by the end of 2016, analysts at BofA ML is $52 per barrel (compared to current prices around $43 per barrel). Experts predict the rise in the price of Brent crude oil to $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2017.